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I would be a lot more supportive of this kind of thinking if it hadn't been going on for more than 40 years. Obviously there is a finite supply of oil, and it
by brc 17y ago
I would be a lot more supportive of this kind of thinking if it hadn't been going on for more than 40 years.
Obviously there is a finite supply of oil, and it will start to run low sooner or later. But I would question any forecaster's ability to make pinpoint accurate judgements on this, given that so many have tried over the last 40 years, and so many have gotten it wrong.
In general, I think that it is very dangerous to pivot thinking around a particular data point or graph. It ascribes a lot of importance to a set of data, that, in summary view looks very concrete and real, but might be made up of a lot of layers of uncertainty and plain old guesswork. I'm not suggesting that this graph is necessarily wrong, but you'd have to be pretty idealistic to believe any simplified piece of information about something has chaotic and complicated as all of the conventional and unconvential oil still in the ground, and able to be extracted, with timeframes and technologies thrown in. There's not even any uncertainty bars in the information.