And just as another probability we can also consider this. 6% of economic output isn't something dramatic - just think, many companies can have quarter-to-quart

And just as another probability we can also consider this. 6% of economic output isn't something dramatic - just think, many companies can have quarter-to-quarter results fluctuating more than that - so it's entirely possible that China won't notice that much, especially if the reduction is evenly spread. More, in autocratic economies people sometimes have higher tolerances to sudden economic turmoils, so it could be just another example of that. Those 6% could even be redistributed, possibly lowering prices elsewhere but in general decreasing, dampening and postponing the direct effect - so possibly not creating anything of a huge problem for China. Regarding USA springing back into self-reliance mode, one can - just as an example, possibly not particularly relevant - see how other countries behave, and how quickly they adjust. As recently demonstrated by Russia, some "remarkable snapping into action" suspiciously didn't happen, and so far economy slides downward two years in a row. That's after lots of rationalizations of Russians which products they don't really need - and reminding that, again, the tolerance to economic hardships there could be bigger than in US. Of course it's also unreasonable to imagine that not only China, but a whole set of countries could decide against US simultaneously. Never had examples of that in the past, right? Once again, this is just another perspective to the reality check proposed.