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Sort of interesting to see the peak oil meme spring up again and again for over a decade and always be right around the corner. Obviously at some point the pro
by idoh 17y ago
Sort of interesting to see the peak oil meme spring up again and again for over a decade and always be right around the corner.
Obviously at some point the production levels will gradually decline, but people will either boost efficiency or substitute away from oil.
- Alex3917 17y agoIn 1956 it was predicted to be in roughly 2000, and the DOE is currently saying that we are right at peak oil now. So if the DOE and the military are correct, this means that they were dead on from the beginning.
- idoh 17y agoI'm not contesting that we'll hit peak oil at some point. I am contesting that people have been able to predict it - lots of people have predicted a wide range of dates. Maybe some people will hit it, but that's luck (or indistinguishable from it). I'm also contesting that we need to be afraid. So long as the change happens gradually there are lots of things we can do to use energy more efficiently or generate more of it.
- stretchwithme 17y agoExactly. Prices rise when demand outstrips supply and people respond by seeking alternatives and by doing more exploration. We'll never truly run out of oil as long as there is a free market. It will just keep getting more expensive. The runup in oil prices that finally turned around in 2008 had nothing to do with long term supply but was caused too much easy credit overheating the economy.
- maxharris 17y agoUnfortunately, we don't have anything like a free market in America, and we haven't had it for over a century. The correct term for what we have is a mixed economy, meaning a mix of (increasing) regulation, control and (diminishing) market forces. Having said that, I do agree that oil will simply get more expensive, and that we won't simply run out of it.
- stretchwithme 17y agowe do have something like the free market in the US. its distorted, compromised, partially outlawed to be sure. the real estate bubble and its collapse were certainly caused by a perfect storm of market distortions, many of which are still with us. but prices for many things, including oil, are set freely and that is the element of the market relevant to the existence of the supply of oil
- Sukotto 17y agoIt was also due to people treating oil as a currency hedge instead of a fuel or raw material.
- brc 17y agoDon't forget a lot of the run-up in prices was due to a fall in the USD, which the oil prices are quoted in. Countries with resource-exporting economies (like Canada) did not see anything like the percentage increase in fuel prices at the pump that the USA saw.
- stretchwithme 17y agoThe fall in the US dollar IS the same problem. When the Federal Reserve pumps too much money into the economy, the value of the dollar drops and prices rise. Inflation is the economy overheating.
- wanderr 17y ago/We'll never truly run out of oil as long is there is a free market/ That is a completely absurd statement. Oil is a finite resource that cannot be reused (at least when it is used for its main purpose). By definition it /must/ run out someday. We can hope to keep pushing that date back, but not forever.
- erikpukinskis 17y agohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptote http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptote
- stretchwithme 17y agoI disagree. Can you name something we've completely run out of? Believe me, if gasoline costs you $50 a gallon, you'll be walking everywhere by choice. You'll pay $10 for a bus ride and love it. R&D will be in overdrive. This is not the first time human beings have encountered a scarce resource.
- sliverstorm 17y agoNot exactly; "The End of Cheap Oil", referenced by the article, was written in 1998 and presents the following graph. http://dieoff.org/page143.jpg http://dieoff.org/page143.jpg True, the peak is predicted to have been a few years before now, but I believe production IS falling today?
- idoh 17y agoThe article places peak oil at around 2012.
- jackfoxy 17y agoThe meme has been around a lot longer than a decade. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil Calling the meme "peak oil" is (I think) relatively more recent. As early as the Kennedy administration the U.S. government implemented "conservation" efforts which put a lot of wild-catters out of business, thus hastening a self-fulfilling prophecy.
- jackfoxy 17y agoThe meme has been around a lot longer than a decade. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil Calling the meme "peak oil" is (I think) relatively more recent. As early as the Kennedy administration the U.S. government implemented "conservation" efforts which put a lot of wild-catters out of business, thus hastening a self-fulfilling prophecy.