4 ms·

If the US withdraws from the Paris accord, other countries like China will follow, as they will not want to be the ones that try to reduce emissions at the pric

If the US withdraws from the Paris accord, other countries like China will follow, as they will not want to be the ones that try to reduce emissions at the price of being less competitive (in the short run) when one of the largest economies in the world won't do it as well. And if the climate science projections are accurate, we will miss the last window of opportunity to reduce the heating and avoid the whole climate system tipping over. And with the current power that the Republicans have and Trump's attitude towards science it's highly unlikely that someone can stop them from going through with this. Seems it really was too good to be true.

pmyjavec 10y ago
The US is not the only country that matters anymore, I don't think China will pull out no matter what US does, they are smart enough to be making money from building renewable tech for the world and onselling it. It's really in Chinese interest to encourage the shift. This is just another race the US is losing.
- ThePhysicist 10y ago
  Well let's hope so!
- up_and_up 10y ago
  Yeah I think China will see it as an opportunity to show leadership and it will play into their attempt to shift the balance of power away from the USA.
  - pmyjavec 10y ago
    This too!
- Turing_Machine 10y ago
  China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, and the amount increases every year. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=9751 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=9751
  - Kaw 10y ago
    Your graph stops in 2011. They hit peak coal in 2014 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n8/full/ngeo2777.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n8/full/ngeo2777.html
- petre 10y ago
  China already licensed every nuclear fission tech from Canada, France and Russia and lately the US as well. They have 35 operational reactors and 35 under construction. http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pro...
- barney54 10y ago
  China is building 200 GW of coal by 2020 alone http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-coal-idUSKCN0ZT09B http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-coal-idUSKCN0Z...
  - wyldfire 10y ago
    China can simultaneously leverage coal for its own infrastructure while building technologies that could obsolete coal economically.
  - ZeroGravitas 10y ago
    Since that article in July they've cancelled 60 coal plants, including many that had already started construction. The capacity they've cancelled is equal to the total coal capacity of the UK and Spain combined. They've still got a long way to go, but the signs that they are turning the ship are clear. http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/10/21/china-coal-crackdown-cancel-new-power-plants/ http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/10/21/china-coal-crack...
rayiner 10y ago
Republicans and Trump are a red herring. The Paris Accord simply sets a goal. It does not tell how how to get there or commit resources to achieving that goal. Actually keeping climate warming to 2C is going to cost tens of trillions of dollars: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527196/how-much-will-it-cost-to-solve-climate-change https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527196/how-much-will-it-c.... No Democrat in the foreseeable future would have made that investment either. Participating in the Paris treaty is simply an empty feel good gesture.
snowwrestler 10y ago
> If the US withdraws from the Paris accord, other countries like China will follow, as they will not want to be the ones that try to reduce emissions at the price of being less competitive (in the short run) when one of the largest economies in the world won't do it as well. I predict the opposite. China knows that climate change is real, and will seek to take a leadership position in fighting it as means of building long-term international prestige. The U.S. built its reputation today by defending freedom during WWII and then by handing nations back to their citizens after it won. Fascism, authoritarianism, communism--those were the greatest threats to human society in the 20th century, and the U.S. led the fight that beat them. But the generation who experienced all that personally will soon be dead. What is the greatest threat to society now? In the long term, it has to be climate change. It's like fuel for every other social unrest you can think of. 50 years from now, international reputation might hinge on who did the most to limit the effects of climate change. If China sticks to it, and the U.S. fails, the U.S. could find itself pretty damn unpopular.
- trashtoss 10y ago
  This is more or less what will happen. In addition to (eventual) climate change China has been making itself increasingly unlivable due to conventional pollution (in all forms)...but the leadership there has always seen this as a temporary cost that must be borne to catch up with the west. Internal pressure will already force China to do something sooner rather than later; handling the problem is a good way to consolidate power internally and thus tackled enthusiastically. Throw in the USA voluntarily ceding its position of world leadership and it's an opportunity to go from barely-tolerated semi-pariah to increasingly-respectable world leader. In particular expect China to "save" Africa once the worst begins. But, not immediately; groundwork is already being laid, but right now they can afford to be patient.

pmyjavec 10y ago

The US is not the only country that matters anymore, I don't think China will pull out no matter what US does, they are smart enough to be making money from building renewable tech for the world and onselling it. It's really in Chinese interest to encourage the shift. This is just another race the US is losing.

ThePhysicist 10y ago
Well let's hope so!
up_and_up 10y ago
Yeah I think China will see it as an opportunity to show leadership and it will play into their attempt to shift the balance of power away from the USA.
- pmyjavec 10y ago
  This too!
Turing_Machine 10y ago
China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, and the amount increases every year. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=9751 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=9751
- Kaw 10y ago
  Your graph stops in 2011. They hit peak coal in 2014 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n8/full/ngeo2777.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n8/full/ngeo2777.html
petre 10y ago
China already licensed every nuclear fission tech from Canada, France and Russia and lately the US as well. They have 35 operational reactors and 35 under construction. http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pro...
barney54 10y ago
China is building 200 GW of coal by 2020 alone http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-coal-idUSKCN0ZT09B http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-coal-idUSKCN0Z...
- wyldfire 10y ago
  China can simultaneously leverage coal for its own infrastructure while building technologies that could obsolete coal economically.
- ZeroGravitas 10y ago
  Since that article in July they've cancelled 60 coal plants, including many that had already started construction. The capacity they've cancelled is equal to the total coal capacity of the UK and Spain combined. They've still got a long way to go, but the signs that they are turning the ship are clear. http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/10/21/china-coal-crackdown-cancel-new-power-plants/ http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/10/21/china-coal-crack...

rayiner 10y ago

Republicans and Trump are a red herring. The Paris Accord simply sets a goal. It does not tell how how to get there or commit resources to achieving that goal. Actually keeping climate warming to 2C is going to cost tens of trillions of dollars: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527196/how-much-will-it-cost-to-solve-climate-change https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527196/how-much-will-it-c.... No Democrat in the foreseeable future would have made that investment either. Participating in the Paris treaty is simply an empty feel good gesture.

snowwrestler 10y ago

> If the US withdraws from the Paris accord, other countries like China will follow, as they will not want to be the ones that try to reduce emissions at the price of being less competitive (in the short run) when one of the largest economies in the world won't do it as well. I predict the opposite. China knows that climate change is real, and will seek to take a leadership position in fighting it as means of building long-term international prestige. The U.S. built its reputation today by defending freedom during WWII and then by handing nations back to their citizens after it won. Fascism, authoritarianism, communism--those were the greatest threats to human society in the 20th century, and the U.S. led the fight that beat them. But the generation who experienced all that personally will soon be dead. What is the greatest threat to society now? In the long term, it has to be climate change. It's like fuel for every other social unrest you can think of. 50 years from now, international reputation might hinge on who did the most to limit the effects of climate change. If China sticks to it, and the U.S. fails, the U.S. could find itself pretty damn unpopular.

trashtoss 10y ago
This is more or less what will happen. In addition to (eventual) climate change China has been making itself increasingly unlivable due to conventional pollution (in all forms)...but the leadership there has always seen this as a temporary cost that must be borne to catch up with the west. Internal pressure will already force China to do something sooner rather than later; handling the problem is a good way to consolidate power internally and thus tackled enthusiastically. Throw in the USA voluntarily ceding its position of world leadership and it's an opportunity to go from barely-tolerated semi-pariah to increasingly-respectable world leader. In particular expect China to "save" Africa once the worst begins. But, not immediately; groundwork is already being laid, but right now they can afford to be patient.