Yes, you're right. Probabilities of ~1/3 are quite hefty, but that didn't keep talking heads from blabbering as though a Clinton victory was a sure thing. Some

Yes, you're right. Probabilities of ~1/3 are quite hefty, but that didn't keep talking heads from blabbering as though a Clinton victory was a sure thing. Some people are going to say we need better models, but perhaps the best thing to do is to quit relying so much on polls and counting. Predicting the future is a dangerous business even if you're "right" most of the time.