Eh? Taleb was criticizing the variability of 538's estimates and said they should not have been making such drastic changes to their estimates. Taleb waffles be

Eh? Taleb was criticizing the variability of 538's estimates and said they should not have been making such drastic changes to their estimates. Taleb waffles between Bayesian and Frequentist and in this case he's being Bayesian. He didn't criticize them for underestimating uncertainty, but for being too uncertain.