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I'm confused. Was their 29% chance "wrong"? Would a 40% chance still be wrong? 45%?
by SamReidHughes 10y ago
I'm confused. Was their 29% chance "wrong"? Would a 40% chance still be wrong? 45%?
- Hydraulix989 10y agoIn general, people don't have such good intuition when it comes to probabilities. Their heuristic is that if the predicted outcome doesn't match the actual outcome, you are wrong.