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"There's zero evolutionary reason for aliens to behave altruistically towards us." But plenty of logistics and game theoretic ones. Logistics: An expansive s
by Daniel_Newby 17y ago
"There's zero evolutionary reason for aliens to behave altruistically towards us."
But plenty of logistics and game theoretic ones.
Logistics: An expansive starfaring culture can garrison every rock in the galaxy within a few million years. The fact that they haven't means that either (1) no such cultures exist or will exist in our vulnerable window, in which case we are unconditionally safe, (2) the galaxy is already garrisoned and they are tolerant, in which case we are conditionally safe as long as we don't piss them off, or (3) we currently live in the special 0.1% of the galaxy's life when a hostile culture is expanding but has not reached us yet, in which case we survive mostly by random luck. The likelihood is that we are in scenario #1 or #2, but cannot know which.
Game theory: A group is deterred by internal risk analysis, not external threat. A clever expansionary culture will run the logistics analysis above and decide that hostility has a horrific risk of backfiring. (For a fictional example, see Greg Bear's Anvil of Stars.)
- stcredzero 17y agoYou leave out another possibility: that the more accurate game theoretic analysis indicates that pre-emptive strike has a good chance to succeed, with little chance of survival or detection by the target civilization. The best option is actually (4) never ever let on that you exist in the first place. I think this is infeasible given the psychological makeup of our species, but perhaps possible for another. In this case, the galaxy is garrisoned, but the aliens know we have some time before we are star faring, so they can take the time to knock us off in a way the least likely to be detected by another species.