They did a post-mortem and pretty much just blamed the polls[1], but didn't really go into detail about why their model spit out that number. But for what it's

They did a post-mortem and pretty much just blamed the polls[1], but didn't really go into detail about why their model spit out that number. But for what it's worth, I have a background in data analytics, and I would never create a model that returns a number in the 90's unless the forecasted results were well outside the estimated range of error. And according to 538, based on what they were seeing, a Trump victory was well within the polling errors, and the polls were off by a similar amount in the 2012 election (but in Obama's direction). They had their forecast in the 70's (and mid 60's just a few days before). Another modeling parameter that may have been a factor in the two models was the number of undecideds. Silver was also very open about how high those were, and how it was pushing up the uncertainty of the model. So it might be possible that HuffPo was ignoring those Regardless, for something like an election where so many factors can influence an outcome (turnout, late breaking news, biased polls) and with so few previous events to base your model on (~12 elections worth of data), you should heavily discourage your model from outputting such a high number. It is irresponsible considering what kind of an impact those types of forecasts can have on voter apathy and decision making, and the only reason I can think they did it was so that they could award themselves the 'most accurate forecaster' title after the election. But instead, they now get to award themselves the 'worst forecaster award', and the rest of us are stuck with Trump for 4 years. [1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pollster-forecast-donald-trump-wrong_us_5823e1e5e4b0e80b02ceca15 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pollster-forecast-donald...