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Natural gas would have to be really cheap in order to beat spot prices for solar on sunny days, especially in the southwest. It's still good for peaker plants t
by hx87 10y ago
Natural gas would have to be really cheap in order to beat spot prices for solar on sunny days, especially in the southwest. It's still good for peaker plants though. Coal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable unless Congress starts taxing solar directly, since it still can't beat solar spot prices and it's categorically unprofitable to run coal plants as peakers.
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoIf we harvest Methane Hydrate deposits undersea and pipe them into coastal cities, then natural gas could become essentially free. That would be hard to beat.
- hx87 10y agoThe capital costs though...and if you ignore capital costs, sunshine is free.
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoThey're huge and convenient. Capital costs paid once; gas flows for centuries. It'll amortize to almost nothing.
- ajross 10y agoYou have a cite for that? Gas is extraordinarily transportable already. If this were true, we'd be sucking those deposits already and shipping or pipelining the LNG already.
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoJust discovered and mapped. Japan is harvesting them.
- acchow 10y agoUnder your definition of "free", aren't current forms of natural gas "free"? Or any other form of hydrocarbon mining?
- JoeAltmaier 10y agoThese deposits happen to be freakishly convenient (offshore coastal cities) and the technology to harvest is ready (offshore drilling). Also they are essentially endless (centuries of supply). Its like they were planted there to tempt us.
- rgbrenner 10y agoCoal, on the other hand, I don't see being profitable I was looking up the numbers.. and was happy to see renewables cost being lower. But take a look at this 2015 report from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo15/pdf/electricity_generation_2015.pdf http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo15/pdf/electricity_g... At the time at least, "clean coal" is more expensive than solar.. but if you eliminated the carbon capture requirement (ie: "conventional coal"), it significantly reduces the price, bringing it in under solar. There is a 2016 version of this report.. but it gets rid of the conventional coal costs, because regulation prevents plants without carbon capture from being built. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....
- toomuchtodo 10y agoCoal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. Natural gas pushes the rest of coal out, with the benefit of being lower carbon impact and has the ability to throttle quicker before the evening peak when solar generation recedes. Wind and solar will of course continue to come down in cost, pushing out natural gas, with battery storage replacing the last of natural gas eventually.
- rgbrenner 10y agoCoal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. According to the 2016 report, it's tax credits that brings solar PV within 5% of combined cycle plants. Without the credits it's 33% more expensive. (And this is for plants entering service in 2022.)
- toomuchtodo 10y agoMaybe I'm missing your argument? I'm arguing moving to natural gas is a win regardless, even if it takes longer for the cost of solar to come down.
- 10y ago