4 ms·

Lets be real here for a minute. There was already a lot of uncertainty in the valley before this happened. The first bubble was a great purge of bad ideas, an

Lets be real here for a minute. There was already a lot of uncertainty in the valley before this happened. The first bubble was a great purge of bad ideas, and people (based on skill or passion), it was fuel for the next evolution. Any major change to the status quo is going to send some waves through the community, and I honestly think that were long over due for a correction not only in the broader market but in tech as well. Frankly, it might be a good thing.

sdegutis 10y ago
Yep, drastic change is probably better than keeping what we have. That's the hope, anyway. That's why Trump won.
- pcwalton 10y ago
  I can't tell whether you're endorsing this view or not by saying "that's the hope, anyway". If so, it seems obviously false. As anyone who has debugged code knows, even if what you have is bad, randomly making changes rarely ever makes it better.
  - alva 10y ago
    injecting randomness into some functions can take you out of a local maxima
- shepardrtc 10y ago
  We live in a golden age of humanity. War is less frequent, crime is down, technology is increasing at an incredible pace, medicine is better than it ever was. What is wrong with what we have?
  - exstudent2 10y ago
    Our media, government and education systems are corrupt.
    - shepardrtc 10y ago
      There are definitely issues, but compare it to a third-world country and you'll see that its pretty good. Not perfect, but overall, good.
      - exstudent2 10y ago
        I would definitely classify them as terrible and oppressive not "good". It has (had?) reached a point where you could literally lose your job for saying on Twitter that you support Trump. You would certainly be punished professionally for it. The media and our university system are very much at fault for creating such a culture of intolerance.
        nickpsecurity 10y ago
        You've been caught in an echo chamber giving you biased info like many liberals. In the South, saying you're for Obama or Hillary can get the same results. You also get deleted off many people's social media if you push them on it. This is one of those things that happens on both sides but the echo chambers tell each it only happens to theirs. Keeps people's attention, ad revenue goes up, and great divide remains strong.
        exstudent2 10y ago
        Sadly the echo chamber I'm trapped in is our industry. If it were just a choice of media or people I knew from high school I wouldn't care. It's appalling to me that any political opinion can terminate your hard earned career in tech just because the people at the top feel they have a monopoly on the truth. This attitude is cultivated by the media and the universities they attended, which is why I view them as the root of corruption.
        nickpsecurity 10y ago
        Oh, I might have misread you. So, you're saying the jobs you've worked disallowed all politics except stuff they dictated? That would be bad, too. The universities can make it worse.
foolrush 10y ago
Explain what a "bad idea" is to me? There are underpinnings of a Grand Narrative in it; "good ideas" carry forth, "bad ideas" die. Evolution with "progress" and "always better" buried in the metanarrative. Even the metanarrative of evolution as having some sort of benevolent directionality. I am not being snarky, and I am genuinely interested in how "bad ideas" (specifically what is a "bad idea") factor into the causation, as well as "skill" and "passion"?
- usmeteora 10y ago
  Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, and this won't be comprehensive but here are some bad ideas 1. A me too idea food delivery service for san francisco #5978978974 another online payment app like the 5 you have downloaded pretentious chat app #749857987 As someone ramping up through vetting stages of successful founders to pitch to VC firms, and reading their feedback, they are so tired of me too ideas, and san francisco solving san franciscos own app problems. There multibillion dollar industries living off off excel files with almost zero people who know sql much less the structure of their own databases, but people dont want to innovate in those industries because its not sexy enough. Even VCs are like please stop if I hear about one more chat app today... When an industry is overfunded inefficient and bad ideas can get funded too, as people pointed out in the .com crash alot of companies died, including people selling cat litter bags online, way before amazon prime existed or any type of optimized shipping or payment plan. People were just selling things online because they could, even if it was not more economical or beneficial for the customer. Those ideas died off, and good too, because we were able to hone in on real economic problems or set backs and focus on providing those solutions and we need that to happen again. Everybody needs to stop trying to be paypal and facebook and look at the other problems out there to solve, because there is alot, so I just have little sympathy for people who are failing with their me too ideas. Now whether any of Trumps policies result in that or not I do now know nor am I educated enough to have an opinion on. Reading Goldman Sachs and UBS wealth management reports this morning post election, alot of details remain to be seen based on his appointments, which people have little idea of at this point, as he is such an outlier even in his own party and has been abandoned by much of it. But it is true Silicon Valley has been expecting a bubble bust for months now, and that is clearly documented on almost every tech forum I read, so immediately 1. Blaming any outcomes on Trump is just inconsistent with the Valley's own prediction for itself 2. Not necessarily a bad thing

sdegutis 10y ago

Yep, drastic change is probably better than keeping what we have. That's the hope, anyway. That's why Trump won.

pcwalton 10y ago
I can't tell whether you're endorsing this view or not by saying "that's the hope, anyway". If so, it seems obviously false. As anyone who has debugged code knows, even if what you have is bad, randomly making changes rarely ever makes it better.
- alva 10y ago
  injecting randomness into some functions can take you out of a local maxima
shepardrtc 10y ago
We live in a golden age of humanity. War is less frequent, crime is down, technology is increasing at an incredible pace, medicine is better than it ever was. What is wrong with what we have?
- exstudent2 10y ago
  Our media, government and education systems are corrupt.
  - shepardrtc 10y ago
    There are definitely issues, but compare it to a third-world country and you'll see that its pretty good. Not perfect, but overall, good.
    - exstudent2 10y ago
      I would definitely classify them as terrible and oppressive not "good". It has (had?) reached a point where you could literally lose your job for saying on Twitter that you support Trump. You would certainly be punished professionally for it. The media and our university system are very much at fault for creating such a culture of intolerance.
      - nickpsecurity 10y ago
        You've been caught in an echo chamber giving you biased info like many liberals. In the South, saying you're for Obama or Hillary can get the same results. You also get deleted off many people's social media if you push them on it. This is one of those things that happens on both sides but the echo chambers tell each it only happens to theirs. Keeps people's attention, ad revenue goes up, and great divide remains strong.
        exstudent2 10y ago
        Sadly the echo chamber I'm trapped in is our industry. If it were just a choice of media or people I knew from high school I wouldn't care. It's appalling to me that any political opinion can terminate your hard earned career in tech just because the people at the top feel they have a monopoly on the truth. This attitude is cultivated by the media and the universities they attended, which is why I view them as the root of corruption.
        nickpsecurity 10y ago
        Oh, I might have misread you. So, you're saying the jobs you've worked disallowed all politics except stuff they dictated? That would be bad, too. The universities can make it worse.

foolrush 10y ago

Explain what a "bad idea" is to me? There are underpinnings of a Grand Narrative in it; "good ideas" carry forth, "bad ideas" die. Evolution with "progress" and "always better" buried in the metanarrative. Even the metanarrative of evolution as having some sort of benevolent directionality. I am not being snarky, and I am genuinely interested in how "bad ideas" (specifically what is a "bad idea") factor into the causation, as well as "skill" and "passion"?

usmeteora 10y ago
Anyone correct me if I'm wrong, and this won't be comprehensive but here are some bad ideas 1. A me too idea food delivery service for san francisco #5978978974 another online payment app like the 5 you have downloaded pretentious chat app #749857987 As someone ramping up through vetting stages of successful founders to pitch to VC firms, and reading their feedback, they are so tired of me too ideas, and san francisco solving san franciscos own app problems. There multibillion dollar industries living off off excel files with almost zero people who know sql much less the structure of their own databases, but people dont want to innovate in those industries because its not sexy enough. Even VCs are like please stop if I hear about one more chat app today... When an industry is overfunded inefficient and bad ideas can get funded too, as people pointed out in the .com crash alot of companies died, including people selling cat litter bags online, way before amazon prime existed or any type of optimized shipping or payment plan. People were just selling things online because they could, even if it was not more economical or beneficial for the customer. Those ideas died off, and good too, because we were able to hone in on real economic problems or set backs and focus on providing those solutions and we need that to happen again. Everybody needs to stop trying to be paypal and facebook and look at the other problems out there to solve, because there is alot, so I just have little sympathy for people who are failing with their me too ideas. Now whether any of Trumps policies result in that or not I do now know nor am I educated enough to have an opinion on. Reading Goldman Sachs and UBS wealth management reports this morning post election, alot of details remain to be seen based on his appointments, which people have little idea of at this point, as he is such an outlier even in his own party and has been abandoned by much of it. But it is true Silicon Valley has been expecting a bubble bust for months now, and that is clearly documented on almost every tech forum I read, so immediately 1. Blaming any outcomes on Trump is just inconsistent with the Valley's own prediction for itself 2. Not necessarily a bad thing