4 ms·
Makes sense. Now, how can Silver correct his methodology to capture the above in future elections, I wonder.
by woodchuck64 10y ago
Makes sense. Now, how can Silver correct his methodology to capture the above in future elections, I wonder.
- maxxxxx 10y agoHe should call it quits together with all other pollsters. All that predicting is at best a totally useless activity or even worse, it influences voter behavior. Bet on football games instead. At least that doesn't do damage to the country.
- 551199 10y agoThe main point of polls is to influence and give social proof to selected candidate. Don't believe me? When you look how they are constructed it becomes clear. Too bad for Clinton campaign she was highly unlikable and even the most expensive campaign in history couldn't help her.
- maxxxxx 10y agoAgreed. All polling and media was totally skewed against Sanders (and then Trump).
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- chaosbutters314 10y agoI think his methodology was fine and pollsters were shit. If you look carefully at the map, he basically called all the swing states hilary and trump took from one another. His model saw the holes in the pollsters data. I think to swing trump to winnning, he'd probably just have to adjust a weighting factor by fractions of a percent. Look at how close michigan, florida and wisconsin were. The tiniest of margins won it for trump in the end. Literally a handful of factories that had closed in the past decade between those states determined this race. The scarier thing is that for the next 10-20 years, boomers in the rust belt are going to swing republican unless dems can get a Bernie. To me, whatever democrat wins the michigan primary, is their candidate above all else.