7 ms·

Befuddling things: Trump defeating Clinton, Highly-disparaged MacBook Pro outselling highly-acclaimed Surface Book in five days, Facebook (who uses facebook any

by daxfohl 10y ago

Befuddling things: Trump defeating Clinton, Highly-disparaged MacBook Pro outselling highly-acclaimed Surface Book in five days, Facebook (who uses facebook anymore? who ever trusted them?) continually developing and deploying the most awesome commercial tech in the world. EDIT (Yes, to the comments, duh lots of people use facebook, buy disparaged MBP the day it comes out and vote whatever. Some don't even use an oxford comma. I just don't get it.)

mliker 10y ago
that's news to me that MBP is outselling Surface. Also, at least 1 billion people use Facebook so that must count for something.
- brisance 10y ago
  It's not a secret that Surface has not been selling well. Actually maybe it is, because the numbers have to be derived by working backwards by dividing revenue with ASP. I think it was something like a million units in the last quarter.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
manigandham 10y ago
1.7 billion people use Facebook.
- Retric 10y ago
  That is extremely likely to be an inflated estimate.
  - WizKid 10y ago
    Why?
    - Retric 10y ago
      Fake accounts among other things. For example ~0.1% of their users die every month but they often don't get notified etc. Further, FB's own estimates cover a fairly wide range, but they have little incentive to user lower estimates.
      - dudurocha 10y ago
        By their official numbers, they have 1,18 Bi DAUs and 1,7 Bi MAUs. If somebody dies, they won't be counted as a DAU anymore and in on month won't be counted as a MAU. More numbers in their Q3 earnings reports: https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2016/Facebook-Reports-Third-Quarter-2016-Results/default.aspx https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/...
        Retric 10y ago
        This may seem pedantic. However, it's not uncommon for a relative to log into a dead users account. Thus showing up on DAU and MAU even after death. Users will log in if for no other reason than to notify people that the user passed and mention the funeral date etc. What makes this significant is these accounts where real and FB really can't get accurate numbers for this so it's all internal estimates. So, yes FB's official numbers take this and many other factors into account. However, if their internal estimate is say 5%-40% of accounts are fake they are likely to use a number close to 5% than 40%.
        the_watcher 10y ago
        While that may happen, the frequency is so low (and would happen once, not every month), that it does not materially impact numbers in the billions.
        Retric 10y ago
        Dead users are just one of many types of 'fake' user. On it's own it's a small percentage of total active accounts. But, I bring it up as the proxy for lot's of other similar estimates. I don't know if what % of 'active' accounts in their logs be that 0.1%, 0.2%, or 0.02% are dead, but I suspect they are going to pick a subjective number that makes them look better. Further, because actuate numbers take a lot of accurate estimates even 'small' biasing of these sub estimates will compound and heavily bias their reported statistics. AKA, spam accounts may be easy to find. But, spammers may create other fake accounts to mask their 'spam' accounts.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
mcintyre1994 10y ago
> who uses facebook anymore? 1.18 billion daily active users on average for September 2016 1.09 billion mobile daily active users on average for September 2016 1.79 billion monthly active users as of September 30, 2016 1.66 billion mobile monthly active users as of September 30, 2016 http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/ http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/ :)
- throwawayReply 10y ago
  What is a daily active user? If I visit a news site with a "share on facebook" widget which uses a facebook endpoint to get my facebook identity, am I an active facebook user? If I have the mobile app installed which runs in the background getting notifications I never read, am I an active facebook user?
  - spullara 10y ago
    No. They are very conservative with their numbers. A Facebook user visits the website or the mobile app to count.
    - jcoffland 10y ago
      How do you know this? Can you back it up?
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - smallnamespace 10y ago
        http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/monthly-active-users-definition-revised/629624 http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/monthly-active-users-defin... "We define a monthly active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger app (and is also a registered Facebook user), in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement."
SteveNuts 10y ago
It's almost like you're taking your personal experiences and extrapolating them to the entire world. Step out of your bubble.
- daxfohl 10y ago
  I'm completely with you, but how?
  - astrodust 10y ago
    Follow people on Twitter who you'd never meet in real life, people from different backgrounds or with wildly different points of view. There's no bubble on Twitter but the one you make for yourself.
    - intopieces 10y ago
      Unfortunately, stepping out of my bubble on Twitter would involved reading racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic invectives. I know we're entering the "post-PC" / "PC-backlash" era but that doesn't mean I ought to spend my precious attention on people whose opinions are not worth considering. But, then again, I've never really been on the Twitter train anyway.
      - astrodust 10y ago
        Either you want out of the bubble or you don't. There are people with contrarian views that aren't necessarily completely batshit insane, like those that chug Alex Jones. For example, I've found David Brin to be fairly balanced, far from left-leaning, but not the sort of Libertarian people like Theil aspire to be: https://twitter.com/DavidBrin https://twitter.com/DavidBrin I'm sure other people can post recommendations here.
        intopieces 10y ago
        > Either you want out of the bubble or you don't. I don't think that's a fair assertion. It's possible to both want to understand opposing points of view but also not have the bandwidth to filter out clearly not-worthwhile text. I'm never unblocking comments on YouTube. I'm never going back to Reddit. It's like being home for Thanksgiving: When the conversation starts with "Well Obama's a Muslim so..." you know it's time to take your turkey plate to the living room and watch the parade.
pizza 10y ago
Welcome to reality

by daxfohl 10y ago

mliker 10y ago

that's news to me that MBP is outselling Surface. Also, at least 1 billion people use Facebook so that must count for something.

brisance 10y ago
It's not a secret that Surface has not been selling well. Actually maybe it is, because the numbers have to be derived by working backwards by dividing revenue with ASP. I think it was something like a million units in the last quarter.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

manigandham 10y ago

1.7 billion people use Facebook.

Retric 10y ago
That is extremely likely to be an inflated estimate.
- WizKid 10y ago
  Why?
  - Retric 10y ago
    Fake accounts among other things. For example ~0.1% of their users die every month but they often don't get notified etc. Further, FB's own estimates cover a fairly wide range, but they have little incentive to user lower estimates.
    - dudurocha 10y ago
      By their official numbers, they have 1,18 Bi DAUs and 1,7 Bi MAUs. If somebody dies, they won't be counted as a DAU anymore and in on month won't be counted as a MAU. More numbers in their Q3 earnings reports: https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2016/Facebook-Reports-Third-Quarter-2016-Results/default.aspx https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/...
      - Retric 10y ago
        This may seem pedantic. However, it's not uncommon for a relative to log into a dead users account. Thus showing up on DAU and MAU even after death. Users will log in if for no other reason than to notify people that the user passed and mention the funeral date etc. What makes this significant is these accounts where real and FB really can't get accurate numbers for this so it's all internal estimates. So, yes FB's official numbers take this and many other factors into account. However, if their internal estimate is say 5%-40% of accounts are fake they are likely to use a number close to 5% than 40%.
        the_watcher 10y ago
        While that may happen, the frequency is so low (and would happen once, not every month), that it does not materially impact numbers in the billions.
        Retric 10y ago
        Dead users are just one of many types of 'fake' user. On it's own it's a small percentage of total active accounts. But, I bring it up as the proxy for lot's of other similar estimates. I don't know if what % of 'active' accounts in their logs be that 0.1%, 0.2%, or 0.02% are dead, but I suspect they are going to pick a subjective number that makes them look better. Further, because actuate numbers take a lot of accurate estimates even 'small' biasing of these sub estimates will compound and heavily bias their reported statistics. AKA, spam accounts may be easy to find. But, spammers may create other fake accounts to mask their 'spam' accounts.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

mcintyre1994 10y ago

> who uses facebook anymore? 1.18 billion daily active users on average for September 2016 1.09 billion mobile daily active users on average for September 2016 1.79 billion monthly active users as of September 30, 2016 1.66 billion mobile monthly active users as of September 30, 2016 http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/ http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/ :)

throwawayReply 10y ago
What is a daily active user? If I visit a news site with a "share on facebook" widget which uses a facebook endpoint to get my facebook identity, am I an active facebook user? If I have the mobile app installed which runs in the background getting notifications I never read, am I an active facebook user?
- spullara 10y ago
  No. They are very conservative with their numbers. A Facebook user visits the website or the mobile app to count.
  - jcoffland 10y ago
    How do you know this? Can you back it up?
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - smallnamespace 10y ago
      http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/monthly-active-users-definition-revised/629624 http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/monthly-active-users-defin... "We define a monthly active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger app (and is also a registered Facebook user), in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement."

SteveNuts 10y ago

It's almost like you're taking your personal experiences and extrapolating them to the entire world. Step out of your bubble.

daxfohl 10y ago
I'm completely with you, but how?
- astrodust 10y ago
  Follow people on Twitter who you'd never meet in real life, people from different backgrounds or with wildly different points of view. There's no bubble on Twitter but the one you make for yourself.
  - intopieces 10y ago
    Unfortunately, stepping out of my bubble on Twitter would involved reading racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic invectives. I know we're entering the "post-PC" / "PC-backlash" era but that doesn't mean I ought to spend my precious attention on people whose opinions are not worth considering. But, then again, I've never really been on the Twitter train anyway.
    - astrodust 10y ago
      Either you want out of the bubble or you don't. There are people with contrarian views that aren't necessarily completely batshit insane, like those that chug Alex Jones. For example, I've found David Brin to be fairly balanced, far from left-leaning, but not the sort of Libertarian people like Theil aspire to be: https://twitter.com/DavidBrin https://twitter.com/DavidBrin I'm sure other people can post recommendations here.
      - intopieces 10y ago
        > Either you want out of the bubble or you don't. I don't think that's a fair assertion. It's possible to both want to understand opposing points of view but also not have the bandwidth to filter out clearly not-worthwhile text. I'm never unblocking comments on YouTube. I'm never going back to Reddit. It's like being home for Thanksgiving: When the conversation starts with "Well Obama's a Muslim so..." you know it's time to take your turkey plate to the living room and watch the parade.

pizza 10y ago

Welcome to reality