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The data does not support the idea that Trump voters are worse off economically than Clinton voters: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trump

The data does not support the idea that Trump voters are worse off economically than Clinton voters: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-...

aaron-lebo 10y ago
But he still gained almost 10 points on Romney among working class whites in almost every state. It's why he won. There's no way Pennsylvania (first time since 1988) and the Rust Belt go to him otherwise.
simonsarris 10y ago
You are looking at old polls that are now provably non-representative. Trump's working class support blew Romney's numbers out of the water. Exit polls show that Trump made massive gains in the under 30k and the 30-49k brackets, compared to the previous election. Higher than 50k income brackets leaned more towards clinton than in the previous election. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/el...
mdorazio 10y ago
There are several problems with this analysis. First, it's based on the same older self-reported exit polling that led 538 to completely mispredict the election, so you should immediately be skeptical of the data. Second, it only takes into account self-reported current income blocks, not change in income over the last decade or so, which is what many Trump voters are angry about. For example, making $70k today might seem ok if you look at the table and see median state income is only $65k, but that means nothing to someone who made $90k in 2007 and has never been able to get income back to that level. Third, it also ignores future predictions based on current state of affairs for voters. It's not very comforting if you make higher than the median income in your area, but your job is on the chopping block. Trump picked up far more non-college educated voters, for whom future job prospects look worse and worse every year, even if they have gainful employment today.
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- hackuser 10y ago
  Do you have some useful research you could share?
  - mdorazio 10y ago
    Unfortunately I do not. It's very hard to find cohort-type labor stats at a large level among the typical wage and unemployment indexes. BLS does have the NLS study [1], but it doesn't quite cover the right things. Mostly what you get is individual stories like [2], which add up to a picture that at least many people believe, even if it isn't 100% true. [1] http://www.bls.gov/nls/ http://www.bls.gov/nls/ [2] http://www.businessinsider.com/us-factory-workers-used-to-live-pretty-good-lives-but-not-anymore-2012-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/us-factory-workers-used-to-li...
nikcub 10y ago
The argument isn't that they're worse off than Clinton voters, but that they're worse off period. This is the old American middle class that did well without a degree usually employed in manufacturing and who usually reliably voted democrat. Overlay this map: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/how-trump-pushed-the-election-map-to-the-right.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/h... With maps like this one: http://i.huffpost.com/gen/275886/MEXICO-JOBS.jpg http://i.huffpost.com/gen/275886/MEXICO-JOBS.jpg
deleted 10y ago
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aaron-lebo 10y ago

But he still gained almost 10 points on Romney among working class whites in almost every state. It's why he won. There's no way Pennsylvania (first time since 1988) and the Rust Belt go to him otherwise.

simonsarris 10y ago

You are looking at old polls that are now provably non-representative. Trump's working class support blew Romney's numbers out of the water. Exit polls show that Trump made massive gains in the under 30k and the 30-49k brackets, compared to the previous election. Higher than 50k income brackets leaned more towards clinton than in the previous election. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/el...

mdorazio 10y ago

There are several problems with this analysis. First, it's based on the same older self-reported exit polling that led 538 to completely mispredict the election, so you should immediately be skeptical of the data. Second, it only takes into account self-reported current income blocks, not change in income over the last decade or so, which is what many Trump voters are angry about. For example, making $70k today might seem ok if you look at the table and see median state income is only $65k, but that means nothing to someone who made $90k in 2007 and has never been able to get income back to that level. Third, it also ignores future predictions based on current state of affairs for voters. It's not very comforting if you make higher than the median income in your area, but your job is on the chopping block. Trump picked up far more non-college educated voters, for whom future job prospects look worse and worse every year, even if they have gainful employment today.

deleted 10y ago
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hackuser 10y ago
Do you have some useful research you could share?
- mdorazio 10y ago
  Unfortunately I do not. It's very hard to find cohort-type labor stats at a large level among the typical wage and unemployment indexes. BLS does have the NLS study [1], but it doesn't quite cover the right things. Mostly what you get is individual stories like [2], which add up to a picture that at least many people believe, even if it isn't 100% true. [1] http://www.bls.gov/nls/ http://www.bls.gov/nls/ [2] http://www.businessinsider.com/us-factory-workers-used-to-live-pretty-good-lives-but-not-anymore-2012-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/us-factory-workers-used-to-li...

nikcub 10y ago

The argument isn't that they're worse off than Clinton voters, but that they're worse off period. This is the old American middle class that did well without a degree usually employed in manufacturing and who usually reliably voted democrat. Overlay this map: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/how-trump-pushed-the-election-map-to-the-right.html http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/h... With maps like this one: http://i.huffpost.com/gen/275886/MEXICO-JOBS.jpg http://i.huffpost.com/gen/275886/MEXICO-JOBS.jpg

deleted 10y ago

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