5 ms·

So I haven't read it, but if it works, why is he sharing it? I had a prof in grad school (http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/management/faculty_staff/academic_p

by ojbyrne 17y ago

So I haven't read it, but if it works, why is he sharing it? I had a prof in grad school (http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/management/faculty_staff/academic_professors/708.htm http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/management/faculty_staff/a...) who worked out an arbitrage system for horse racing. Other than publishing a few obscure papers, he kept it to himself. Because it wouldn't actually work if he shared it to a mass market. Just asking, before I go and read the page in depth.

hyperbovine 17y ago
Gee, it's almost as if some people are motivated by things besides money...
- mey 17y ago
  Or he is motivated by money, but his system doesn't work, so publishing snake oil in a book, is the source of income.
  - ojbyrne 17y ago
    This was my suspicion. I added the disclaimer, just because I can't actually say its true without reading what's on the web page(in depth).
- ojbyrne 17y ago
  If that was true, he'd have the entire book on the website, instead of excerpts.
  - hyperbovine 17y ago
    That's a fair point. OTOH a lot of people who take the trouble to write a book would like to see it in print, and almost all publishers forbid you from releasing the manuscript in alternate forms once it has been published. Also, for somebody with his skill set, there are many shorter paths to riches than writing MAA monographs. If you just read even the preface to this book ( http://books.google.com/books?id=UvWGgaE4ZA8C&lpg=PP1&dq=calculated%20bets&pg=PR11#v=onepage&q&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=UvWGgaE4ZA8C&lpg=PP1&#3... ), it is obvious that his motivation for writing it has everything to do with a lifelong fascination with mathematical modeling and sincere desire to share that with others, and nothing to do with making money from gambling returns. The gambling was merely meant to put his model to the test in a way that penalized failure. It's all right there in the book. But hey, why consult the text when we can all sit around grousing online about what his intentions might have been?
wtn 17y ago
At the time of writing, the market in question--jai alai--was so small that one could not bet it professionally. The action and the number of sites where it was played dried up.
heyitsnick 17y ago
What do you mean by "work out" an arbitrage system? Arbitrage is arbitrage. Do you mean he wrote a system to find arb opportunities and place the bets automatically?
- ojbyrne 17y ago
  Arbitrage can mean buying a package of items and selling another equivalent package of items. So in horse racing (vague 20 year old memories here), it might mean betting on the a certain proportion of your money on the trifecta and other proportions on each of the horses not included in that trifecta. So you'd have do the math for each combination of 3 horses that could appear in the trifecta, and the corresponding payoffs. I doubt he had something that placed the bets automatically (because betting wouldn't have been on the internet) but he had some software to take the odds and identify arbitrage opportunities.

by ojbyrne 17y ago

hyperbovine 17y ago

Gee, it's almost as if some people are motivated by things besides money...

mey 17y ago
Or he is motivated by money, but his system doesn't work, so publishing snake oil in a book, is the source of income.
- ojbyrne 17y ago
  This was my suspicion. I added the disclaimer, just because I can't actually say its true without reading what's on the web page(in depth).
ojbyrne 17y ago
If that was true, he'd have the entire book on the website, instead of excerpts.
- hyperbovine 17y ago
  That's a fair point. OTOH a lot of people who take the trouble to write a book would like to see it in print, and almost all publishers forbid you from releasing the manuscript in alternate forms once it has been published. Also, for somebody with his skill set, there are many shorter paths to riches than writing MAA monographs. If you just read even the preface to this book ( http://books.google.com/books?id=UvWGgaE4ZA8C&lpg=PP1&dq=calculated%20bets&pg=PR11#v=onepage&q&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=UvWGgaE4ZA8C&lpg=PP1&#3... ), it is obvious that his motivation for writing it has everything to do with a lifelong fascination with mathematical modeling and sincere desire to share that with others, and nothing to do with making money from gambling returns. The gambling was merely meant to put his model to the test in a way that penalized failure. It's all right there in the book. But hey, why consult the text when we can all sit around grousing online about what his intentions might have been?

wtn 17y ago

At the time of writing, the market in question--jai alai--was so small that one could not bet it professionally. The action and the number of sites where it was played dried up.

heyitsnick 17y ago

What do you mean by "work out" an arbitrage system? Arbitrage is arbitrage. Do you mean he wrote a system to find arb opportunities and place the bets automatically?

ojbyrne 17y ago
Arbitrage can mean buying a package of items and selling another equivalent package of items. So in horse racing (vague 20 year old memories here), it might mean betting on the a certain proportion of your money on the trifecta and other proportions on each of the horses not included in that trifecta. So you'd have do the math for each combination of 3 horses that could appear in the trifecta, and the corresponding payoffs. I doubt he had something that placed the bets automatically (because betting wouldn't have been on the internet) but he had some software to take the odds and identify arbitrage opportunities.