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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivet

• matt_s 10y ago
  That group was featured on ABC news coverage last night in the US. They predicted Clinton would win 70% to 20% early in the evening. I didn't read what they said about their process but they were completely off too.
  • dragonwriter 10y ago
    > They predicted Clinton would win 70% to 20% early in the evening. No, they predicted about a 70%:30% chance of Clinton vs. Trump win, not a 70% to 20% win by Clinton. > I didn't read what they said about their process but they were completely off too. It wasn't so much that they were completely off as that some people mistake a claim of probability > 50% with a claim of certainty. Sure, the most-likely winner map was wrong in a number of states, but the reason 538 had a 30% chance of Trump winning rather than much lower chances given by other models was that 538 takes into account the fact that deviations in results from polling in different states tend to be correlated rather than independent.