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I don't consider it a bubble unless there's a ton of "normals" pouring money into a market, artificially inflating the prices. The dot com bubble happened beca
by iamelgringo 17y ago
I don't consider it a bubble unless there's a ton of "normals" pouring money into a market, artificially inflating the prices.
The dot com bubble happened because companies IPO's quickly and early and "normals" poured money into companies like pets.com. The real estate bubble happened because "normals" started pouring money into buying and flipping real estate.
In both cases, the valuations were way out of line because so many "normals" had poured money into those investments, and millions of "normals" lost money when valuations came back into line with a non-speculator induced feeding frenzy.
Rhere are a handful of companies that are getting crazy high valuations by a handful of investors competing with each other to get skin in the game. But, a dozen VC firms competing with each other to give Groupon a crazy high valuation doesn't a bubble make. It just means that those companies are probably going to have to IPO or get bought for $500 million + for the investors to get their money back.
I suspect that what we're seeing is investors being hungry after the stock market crash of the last few years. Now that the investor's stock portfolio's have regained 60% of the value they lost the last 2 years, they are playing less defense with their money, and are willing to put some money on some risky bets with startups. And we're seeing the feeding frenzy with the valuations of a handful of startups.
- tewks 17y agoGreat point regarding the lack of involvement of "normals". However, the presence of "normals" alters only the magnitude of a phenomenon, not the shape. I'd suspect the shape of a phenomenon wouldn't necessarily change due to the presence of "normals" because it can be shown that "normals" don't make better or worse decisions on average than non-"normals". Furthermore, many "normals" in the dot-com situation were guided there directly or indirectly by overeager pension funds, brokers, analysts, and the like (non-"normals").