I dedicated most of my post trying to describe how much Sam Wang was assured despite "just" a 4% margin, how big it actually is. That may have clouded my real p

I dedicated most of my post trying to describe how much Sam Wang was assured despite "just" a 4% margin, how big it actually is. That may have clouded my real point. In my last paragraph, I tried to put forth a theory that leaves the preference interpretation valid. What do you think about it?