7 ms·

He got elected on all these promises. 1- Build the wall and make Mexico pay for it 2- Deportation Force on day one 3- Repeal obamacare 4- Renegotiate NAFTA

• inimino 10y ago
  I'll play: 6 is a given, 3 is on the table but wouldn't be easy. The rest range from unlikely to impossible.
  • bbctol 10y ago
    Why wouldn't 3 be easy, given the makeup of the Senate and House?
    • SketchySeaBeast 10y ago
      The hard part will be "and here's our alternative!"
    • deleted 10y ago
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    • deleted 10y ago
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    • inimino 10y ago
      Because it's already in place, and some of those folks in the House and Senate might want to get elected again.
  • AndrewKemendo 10y ago
    3 is on the table but wouldn't be easy It would seem with a republican congress that it would be easy. Why do you think otherwise?
    • jansanchez 10y ago
      Democrats can still filibuster a repeal as republicans won't hold a supermajority in Senate.
      • telesphore 10y ago
        Reconciliation is filibuster-proof, They don't have to repeal it, just defund it. Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_...
    • kllrnohj 10y ago
      The rest of the republic party is going to be less eager to burn everything to the ground. There's a chance that they'll choose to just ignore obamacare as there's not much to be gained by attempting to repeal it.
• commenting 10y ago
  It's like 1930s Germany all over again, except that Muslims are the new Jews. You'd think we would have learned from last time a racist, populist demagogue gained control of a nation. (Yes, I'm aware that "Godwin's Law invoked". In this case, it's actually relevant.)
  • hx87 10y ago
    Except, you know, we don't have an Article 48, any proposed Enabling Act would be filibustered to hell, and our society is nowhere near as authoritarian as it used to be, much less 1930s Germany.
    • commenting 10y ago
      Well, let's see what happens in the next four years. I hope you're right. One potential danger is that Trump will now be indirectly in charge of the entire country's mass surveillance apparatus. That's a powerful system that could be potentially be weaponized against sections of the population that Trump deems undesirable.
      • dsfyu404ed 10y ago
        I think there's a good chance that someone with experience in highly regulated industries will not do that.
      • dsfyu404ed 10y ago
        I think there's a good chance that someone with experience in highly regulated industries will not do that.
    • lostlogin 10y ago
      You're much more closely watched though. If things go bad now the scope for harm is much greater.
    • mikeash 10y ago
      Hitler started out in a relatively powerless position, and got his Enabling Act afterwards. You say it wouldn't happen, but I think all it would take is one big terrorist attack and the people would be clamoring for it.
• leakybit 10y ago
  coal isn't even economically viable with current natural gas and oil prices.
  • undersuit 10y ago
    Oh I'm pretty sure the US government can free up some more money for coal subsidies.
  • Miner49er 10y ago
    Yeah it is, just depends on where it's coming from. It's less economically viable, but there's still a demand.
• pzh 10y ago
  He is not going to follow through on absolutely any of those things. They were just campaign 'promises' that are going to be broken. It seems people forget really fast how politicians always renege on their promises--e.g. how Obama promised revolutionary change and the most transparent administration, yet turned out to be pro-surveillance, etc. It's almost like it was a different person who made the original promises, and the new one is left off the hook. Trump is very pragmatic and he's also a seasoned reality TV personality who knows what to say in order to appeal to some of his voters' basest instincts and beliefs. As far as actual policies go, I wouldn't really expect anything too radical from him though. I guess many of his blue-collar voters will be disappointed, but then lots of others will be relieved...
• jdc0589 10y ago
  1 - no way to do this that isn't suicide for foreign relations. 2 - there won't be a deportation "force". undocumented/illegal immigrants aren't going to get auto-citizenship, and there may be additional requirements put on employers to verify citizenship. 3 - possible 4 - I'm not convinced Trump actually knows what countries and regions are affected by NAFTA. unlikely. 5 - sweet jesus I hope not. 6 - likely 7 - not possible. if he tries it's auto impeachment (or a vote for it anyway) 8 - also potential auto-impeachment. abuse of powers. 9 - I would like to see this happen, but the only way it could work is MASSIVE tax breaks to offset more expensive labor. It won't happen in 4 years, but some groundwork might be laid. 10 - "goes on camera and says something horribly offensive and xenophobic to leaders/citizens of a foreign country that seriously damages us": 10/10 will happen.
• ajross 10y ago
  In all honesty: almost none. He just wanted to be president. Most of his time will be spend enriching himself by selling banal access and bloviating on the world stage. That's pretty awful, but not apocalypse-level awful. Of your list: The wall is a technical impossibility that everyone can recognize. There's no funding for a deportation force and the political optics of goon squads rounding people up is something congress won't do. No one actually wants to yank medical coverage from millions of voters (they'll just let the democrats filibuster it in the senate). There's nothing meaningful to renegotiate in NAFTA, no serious stakeholders have suggestions there. Coal hasn't really gone away, and permiting and regulation changes are going to take longer than four years anyway. "Bring back american companies" is just a fairy tale. Global economics simply doesn't work like that and there's nothing a chief executive can do. That leaves: Muslim ban. Maybe, at least in some symbolic way. Tax cuts for the rich. Yeah, duh. But that's a republican staple and we've survived it before. US deficit spending is actually not nearly so serious a problem as people believe.
  • simonh 10y ago
    >That's pretty awful, but not apocalypse-level awful. My main concern is foreign policy. The House can drive domestic policy and hopefully not make a mess of it, but foreign policy is all Trump's domain. He's vain and temperamental, this provides two powerful levers that manipulative foreign powers like China and Russia are free to push and pull as they like. He's also notoriously bad at taking advice. Frankly, it's not looking good.
    • kilroy123 10y ago
      Same here! As someone who went to school for International Relations, this is so sickening. I live abroad and let me tell you, people are very upset around the world.
      • bduerst 10y ago
        I'm in Tokyo right now, and my cab driver, in broken English, told me last night that he fears for the world.
• dominotw 10y ago
  11. Sue unethical and corrupt media to death. <-- can't wait for this.
• einrealist 10y ago
  12. Privatize everything that can be privatized (like roads, education). What can possibly go wrong?!
• jkubicek 10y ago
  I'm not all that worried about Trump enacting any of his specific policies. I am worried about Trump legitimizing sexual assault and violence towards POC and Muslims. White men are going to get through the next four years just fine, women and minorities will very likely not.
  • erikpukinskis 10y ago
    Sexual assault is already legitimized. You can rape someone and you will almost certainly not be arrested, and suffer no real social consequences. Trump didn't change that he just made it more obvious.
• elevensies 10y ago
  Predictions: - @POTUS twitter account is going to start tweeting at 3AM - I think illegal immigration enforcement could see the most drastic and immediate change. To my knowledge the status quo is not legislated in any way, and was created by preventing enforcement rather than any legal means. When low-skill unemployment bottoms out the motivation will start to weaken. - whatever was done by Obama by executive order, I presume will be quickly undone, they will probably have reams of documents ready to be signed on day 1. - Hillary Clinton: in order to prosecute Trump will need to nominate a new Attorney General to the DOJ, and then ask the FBI to re-assess I guess? I don't think she will go to jail, in some countries when power changes the losers get jailed but it hasn't been the case in America, and I don't think high level politicians want it to become the case. For all practical purposes I think Clinton will continue to be above the law. - The WALL ... boy I don't know. I will be fascinating to watch if he tries to do this. The only utility will be economic stimulus. - Trade war: I think the American dollar will go to a lower level which will decrease imports and increase exports. - Muslim ban: I think he will disallow visas from active conflict areas and nearby. I don't think i.e. Malaysia will be effected, or Indian muslims for example. Maybe countries that aren't functional enough to carry out a criminal background check will be disallowed. EDIT: Also, I don't think Trump+GOP will enact or seek to promote any racist or sexist policies, I don't think they will mount an attack on the recent marriage equality ruling. I think the following people will suffer financially: - undocumented immigrants - industries that depend on a close relationship with the government: the guard is changing -- if you had relationships with the Bushes and the Clintons, you've had access to the most powerful organization to ever exist in the world for the past 27 years, that may or may not continue. This is if Trump lives all four years. All of the above doesn't apply to Pence, I think Pence could do some real damage.
  • gecko 10y ago
    They have literally announced they're going to try to undo Roe v. Wade and repeal all LGTBQ protections they can. Like, that literally already happened. So I think we're already past the "[won't] enact or seek to promote any racist or sexist policies". I suspect that's because Trump has effectively delegated the entire office of President to Pence.
• ascotan 10y ago
  Mexico pay for the wall - yes, this is now a sure thing. A number of prominent Mexican politicians badly insulted Trump early in his campaign and are now in a very awkward position. My guess is that they have undermined their position at the bargaining table with this and are likely to end up 'paying' for the wall in some way, shape or form. We've never had a president as adamant as dealing with the immigration issue as Trump. Even Bush/McCain wanted some partial amnesty programs. Remember that we already have a partial wall with Mexico. Completing that wall and increasing border security is now likely a done deal. Deportation on day one - this will never happen. There is a large complex body of laws dealing with immigration that will not be superseded by some desire to deport people without a hearing. Repeal Obamacare - yes this will happen is some part. We already have the news stories of the massive increase in premiums coming and that combined with a stacked, house, senate, judiciary and executive branch makes it look very very likely that the worst parts of obamacare are going to go. It's not clear wether or not some of the more popular reforms (pre-existing conditions, kids under 26) will stay as part of some other reform bill. Renegotiate NAFTA - yes. A president that has the cost of everything on his mind combined with the lack of decorum from the Mexican government might very well trigger this. This is especially true if the Mexican government continues to behave badly towards the new government. Bring back coal - I have news for you - coal never left. West Virginia elected a Democrat for governor but was one of the first states to elect Trump last night. Coal has never forgotten Al Gore/Bill Clinton. Last night they made the point again. I think more seriously subsidies for green energy might decrease (with the exception of ethanol with is all produced in red states). Reduce taxes for the rich - personal income tax no, corporate taxes yes. Corporate taxes in the US are the highest in the world and Trump will work to fix that to allow companies to come back to US soil to operate. Ban muslims - no. Trump wanted to slow or stop immigration from Syria in particular until the people are better vetted for links to terrorism. This has been simplified to 'ban muslims'. Muslim immigration will not be prevented but it might be slowed to allow for better vetting. Prosecute Hillary Clinton - yes. Trump will appoint a justice apartment head and a FBI director that is likely to reopen the case into the emails. It's not clear what the outcome of this might be. Ultimately the truth will prevail here.
• matthewmcg 10y ago
  All but maybe #5 and #8 require legislation and thus the cooperation of congress (including 60 votes in the Senate to defeat a potential Democrat filibuster). My view is that the most important job of the President is to ensure the effective functioning of the executive branch agencies. This involves selecting good department heads and pursuing effective policies through the exercise of discretion in rule-making and executive orders. This is vital, but largely esoteric and technical stuff. It's also an embodiment of the "system" and the "elites" that Trump campaigned against. I see three possibilities as to how he handles this part of his job: 1. He doesn't actually care and entirely delegates it to people that do, likely the existing right-wing policy apparatus of pro-business, anti-regulation ideologues. The tenor of the agencies changes much as it did under George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, some qualified people leave, but the essential machinery of government continues operating. 2. He delegates the "boring stuff" (SEC, FAA, FDA, IRS, DOE, etc.) per 1 but uses the executive branch machinery to pursue projects that are personally and politically important to him, e.g. leaning on the DoJ to "lock her up" or destroying the EPA. The boring agencies continue to function, but others become plagued by strife and a loss of morale. 3. He blunders, has a health issue, or a serious scandal emerges that politically paralyzes him and nothing happens till he is replaced. Remember, while he's spent a long time in the public eye, he's escaped the usual scrutiny that has been given to the health and financial affairs of post-Nixon candidates.
  • matthewmcg 10y ago
    After further reflection on his election night cabinet announcements, I'll add #4: he nominates "the best people," i.e. individuals selected on the basis of their public notoriety or prior fealty to his organization rather than their expertise or political leanings. This causes a delegation within the agencies to lower-level administrators and career personnel and some blend of the outcomes in scenario 1 and 2.
• TheGrassyKnoll 10y ago
  You didn't mention the Iran nuclear deal. I'm expecting yet another war in Iran within two years.