4 ms·

I wonder how long this populist wave that's spreading over the west [0] is going to continue? [0] https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id

by sndean 10y ago

I wonder how long this populist wave that's spreading over the west [0] is going to continue? [0] https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=1401 https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?I... [pdf]

snowwrestler 10y ago
Until the generation that is driving it dies off, so probably ~20 years. I'm being flippant, but--look at the vote splits by age. Young voters in the UK overwhelmingly voted against Brexit. Young voters in the U.S. overwhelmingly voted against Trump. The voice of populism today is the voice of economic and cultural disenfranchisement. It is difficult to re-employ millions of 60-year-old folks whose skills are out of date. It is difficult to get 60-year-old folks who have spent their lives in a homogeneous town, to accept multicultural diversity. They are crying out for help and success again, and we'll continue down this course as a society until we either give it to them, or they leave us.
- falsestprophet 10y ago
  People change as they age. Today's 60 year-olds were the idealistic youth 40 years ago. Many a 20 year old communist is something else at 30 and then again at 60.
- devopsproject 10y ago
  > Young voters in the U.S. overwhelmingly voted against Trump don't people get more conservative as they age?
  - snowwrestler 10y ago
    Yes, in terms of financial conservatism (they have more to lose), and in terms of not keeping up with social progress (fearing young activists). That's them getting relatively more conservative, compared to the moving society around them. But people don't generally slide back from what they experienced as kids. A LOT of 18- to 25-year-olds today grew up as a kid in a society where it is acceptable to have friends from lots of ethnic backgrounds, to have friends who are gay or trans, to believe that women should be equal to men in society, etc. They're not going to lose that as they age. That's their base concept of "normal."

by sndean 10y ago

snowwrestler 10y ago

Until the generation that is driving it dies off, so probably ~20 years. I'm being flippant, but--look at the vote splits by age. Young voters in the UK overwhelmingly voted against Brexit. Young voters in the U.S. overwhelmingly voted against Trump. The voice of populism today is the voice of economic and cultural disenfranchisement. It is difficult to re-employ millions of 60-year-old folks whose skills are out of date. It is difficult to get 60-year-old folks who have spent their lives in a homogeneous town, to accept multicultural diversity. They are crying out for help and success again, and we'll continue down this course as a society until we either give it to them, or they leave us.

falsestprophet 10y ago
People change as they age. Today's 60 year-olds were the idealistic youth 40 years ago. Many a 20 year old communist is something else at 30 and then again at 60.
devopsproject 10y ago
> Young voters in the U.S. overwhelmingly voted against Trump don't people get more conservative as they age?
- snowwrestler 10y ago
  Yes, in terms of financial conservatism (they have more to lose), and in terms of not keeping up with social progress (fearing young activists). That's them getting relatively more conservative, compared to the moving society around them. But people don't generally slide back from what they experienced as kids. A LOT of 18- to 25-year-olds today grew up as a kid in a society where it is acceptable to have friends from lots of ethnic backgrounds, to have friends who are gay or trans, to believe that women should be equal to men in society, etc. They're not going to lose that as they age. That's their base concept of "normal."