> What convinced you to make these predictions? I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is cyclical. We're at a point where I think

> What convinced you to make these predictions? I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is cyclical. We're at a point where I think many old ideas are about to be revived. Talking explicitly about the last prediction will probably get me a hellban but my email is in my profile if you wanted me to elaborate. > And how far ahead of these events did you predict them? This is rough, I didn't keep a notebook for them. To do it properly like Scott Alexander I'd have to state a probability and some limit so a failed prediction couldn't be weaseled into a 'prophesy'. To the best of my memory it is this: In the case of Brexit, at least six months, maybe a year. In the case of Trump, close to half a year. In the case of the same sex marriage, as soon as I heard it proposed, I don't remember when that was. And the civil conflict prediction is about 1-2 years old. Those are highly random difficult to predict events. I think I would have put it into a 'Five Year Plan', and 2016 would be Year 3, so that's 2 years 2 months to go. I increased my confidence when I found out the CIA had the same prognosis on civil conflict in Europe for the same time period.