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I predict that not that much will change WRT valley issues. His bombastic statements were populist, I don't see anything on the policy agenda that seems it wil

I predict that not that much will change WRT valley issues. His bombastic statements were populist, I don't see anything on the policy agenda that seems it will hit the Valley in any meaningful way. Even if there are some trade-barbs with China ... the Valley doesn't export much there ...

aaronblohowiak 10y ago
we import quite a bit from China, so tariffs would be painful.
- edblarney 10y ago
  + We are outsourced there but we are the customers in that equation. The Chinese will not make things more difficult for American buyers - they are in a very pernicious situation as it is. + As for tariffs: the thing is - we are already in a trade war. China can sell in the US at will. China blocks tons of American companies from selling to China. American exports to China are almost nothing. The Chinese are already 'attacking' and have little to retaliate with. Also - manufacturers are already moving many things out of China etc. and the gov knows it. Tariffs may pinch a little bit, but if they do - they would be offset by a commensurate uptick in American manufacturing. The only thing the Chinese could do would be to block 'Pizza Hut' and possibly Apple, which would suck. Because of the trade imbalance, the Americans can do far, far more damage than the other way around. China does hold massive US reserves, and could play some tricks, but it's not going to get to that, moreover, the Fed is ready to mop up any liquidity if the Chinese step out of bounds. China has been playing a great hand of poker against the West - dividing and conquering - US and EU leaders all kow towing to China, and if they speak up getting slapped down for 'fear of losing access' to China. But we don't have access ... and we're never going to get it. Why would they give us access? It will take some leadership to re-establish proper trade relations, and even though I don't like Trump at all - if he gets more aggressive with China it would be almost surely a 'good thing'. The area I would worry about is military i.e. South China sea etc.. I see a lot of Obamacare being repealed, a tougher stance on illegal immigration coming for sure. I don't think that will hit the Valley very hard.
  - jonknee 10y ago
    > American exports to China are almost nothing. Except they are quite significant, third largest after Canada and Mexico.
    - edblarney 10y ago
      After Canada, EU, then Mexico. But you're right I probably over stated a little bit. Nevertheless, the trade imbalance is massively lopsided.
willvarfar 10y ago
American tech manufacturing is outsourced to Asia, right? Will a trade war with China, for example, impact gadget production and raise costs and lower demand for the gadgets that the valley produces and profits from? If there are trade-barbs with China then I would expect that to hit the valley hard.
- tajen 10y ago
  Low factory jobs may come back to US, hopefull with better pay than in China and selling gadgets at a higher price point, while China starts focussing on producing for their own population. I look at this quite optimistically, as it makes end-user price closer to the real cost of production, and it makes production local which brings the concerns for extremely-poor workers closer to the consumer. In other words, no-one cared for Chinese slaving away, but reimporting those jobs and having Americans factory workers in the same indecent position may trigger more empathy, or at least more health/education budget is available to cater for them. Maybe we'll even charge 10x for IoT gadgets (or kid games, or Ikea lamps), so that workers get a decent situation. It will hit the Valley hard, but only startups who distribute moderately useful gadgets that rely on the poverty of the Chinese workforce. Maybe it will go as far as paying the Macbook price for a PC, but that's ok if workers get proper working conditions.
  - sangnoir 10y ago
    > while China starts focussing on producing for their own population It's already doing that, which is why US companies are tripping over themselves as they scramble to get in on the Chinese market
Abdur91 10y ago
yeah,true

aaronblohowiak 10y ago

we import quite a bit from China, so tariffs would be painful.

edblarney 10y ago
+ We are outsourced there but we are the customers in that equation. The Chinese will not make things more difficult for American buyers - they are in a very pernicious situation as it is. + As for tariffs: the thing is - we are already in a trade war. China can sell in the US at will. China blocks tons of American companies from selling to China. American exports to China are almost nothing. The Chinese are already 'attacking' and have little to retaliate with. Also - manufacturers are already moving many things out of China etc. and the gov knows it. Tariffs may pinch a little bit, but if they do - they would be offset by a commensurate uptick in American manufacturing. The only thing the Chinese could do would be to block 'Pizza Hut' and possibly Apple, which would suck. Because of the trade imbalance, the Americans can do far, far more damage than the other way around. China does hold massive US reserves, and could play some tricks, but it's not going to get to that, moreover, the Fed is ready to mop up any liquidity if the Chinese step out of bounds. China has been playing a great hand of poker against the West - dividing and conquering - US and EU leaders all kow towing to China, and if they speak up getting slapped down for 'fear of losing access' to China. But we don't have access ... and we're never going to get it. Why would they give us access? It will take some leadership to re-establish proper trade relations, and even though I don't like Trump at all - if he gets more aggressive with China it would be almost surely a 'good thing'. The area I would worry about is military i.e. South China sea etc.. I see a lot of Obamacare being repealed, a tougher stance on illegal immigration coming for sure. I don't think that will hit the Valley very hard.
- jonknee 10y ago
  > American exports to China are almost nothing. Except they are quite significant, third largest after Canada and Mexico.
  - edblarney 10y ago
    After Canada, EU, then Mexico. But you're right I probably over stated a little bit. Nevertheless, the trade imbalance is massively lopsided.

willvarfar 10y ago

American tech manufacturing is outsourced to Asia, right? Will a trade war with China, for example, impact gadget production and raise costs and lower demand for the gadgets that the valley produces and profits from? If there are trade-barbs with China then I would expect that to hit the valley hard.

tajen 10y ago
Low factory jobs may come back to US, hopefull with better pay than in China and selling gadgets at a higher price point, while China starts focussing on producing for their own population. I look at this quite optimistically, as it makes end-user price closer to the real cost of production, and it makes production local which brings the concerns for extremely-poor workers closer to the consumer. In other words, no-one cared for Chinese slaving away, but reimporting those jobs and having Americans factory workers in the same indecent position may trigger more empathy, or at least more health/education budget is available to cater for them. Maybe we'll even charge 10x for IoT gadgets (or kid games, or Ikea lamps), so that workers get a decent situation. It will hit the Valley hard, but only startups who distribute moderately useful gadgets that rely on the poverty of the Chinese workforce. Maybe it will go as far as paying the Macbook price for a PC, but that's ok if workers get proper working conditions.
- sangnoir 10y ago
  > while China starts focussing on producing for their own population It's already doing that, which is why US companies are tripping over themselves as they scramble to get in on the Chinese market

Abdur91 10y ago

yeah,true