4 ms·

Worth remembering that the FTSE (UK stock index) crashed briefly after Brexit, and is now up. The markets priced in a Clinton win, and now that isn't happening

Worth remembering that the FTSE (UK stock index) crashed briefly after Brexit, and is now up. The markets priced in a Clinton win, and now that isn't happening. What we're seeing is uncertainty and volatility getting priced into the market, not any referendum on Trump. We'll see what happens in a week.

kevinburke 10y ago
It's pretty easy to see this as a referendum on Trump. Trade and immigration are generally good for an economy. Trump wants to sharply reduce both and has promised to deport millions of immigrants.
octo_t 10y ago
The FTSE 100 recovered, mostly because GBP lost out against the dollar. There was a bloomberg chart a few weeks back, comparing the FTSE in USD versus the FTSE in GBP and the difference was striking. Take away lesson: markets are complex...
xenadu02 10y ago
It's also worth remembering that no one has any idea what the long-term consequences are either. Brexit might never happen, it might happen and be a disaster, or it might happen and not really affect much. Similarly with Trump we have no idea what might happen if he does win. He could end up starting WW3, or call for the end of US Democracy and install himself as dictator (and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that).... or he might just end up a do-nothing president bounced out after 4 years. For that matter maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely progressive agenda. You never know what Trump might do. So yes, I predict a short-term crash, a recovery, but after that all bets are off. We're also due for a recession at some point. In fact Trump could be a blessing in disguise as he presides over a recession, bungles the response, and gets him and the rest of the Rs tossed out in 2018 or 2020. I'm torn about the whole thing because I will personally benefit from Republican control. I've finally made it into the tax bracket where their constant tax breaks for the rich personally benefit me. Long-term their rich-get-richer strategy will lead to anemic growth. Whoever said "may you live in interesting times" as a curse was right.
- noobermin 10y ago
  You're more right than you think. You reached such a tax bracket but for many of us who are much more powerless (like me), for many of us we can't wait 2 or 4 years.
- lisper 10y ago
  > maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely progressive agenda I'll give you long odds against. One thing is for certain: we just flushed our last hope of averting a global climate catastrophe down Donald Trump's gold-plated toilet.
  - seanp2k2 10y ago
    Drill baby drill! It's going to be a wild ride.
- botexpert 10y ago
  > and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that this kind of superiority isolationism leads to the problem. it lead to brexit and to the election of many right-wing politicians in european countries. when a large mass of people is isolated and unrepresented, they will strike.
  - tootie 10y ago
    There's no other explanation I can accept at this point. You can break down how he appealed to voter sentiment better than liberals because he obviously did, but you'll never convince me his policies won't go in the completely wrong direction for everyone.
    - botexpert 10y ago
      Hmm, but explanation is simple - protest votes - not "people are stupid and times are strange". Same thing happened at Brexit. These protest votes aren't act of stupidity, since these people are isolated from the political discourse, they know that either option won't change their well-being or at least they feel that after the protest votes they will be heard and someone will listen. If not Trump, then some new face in the political landscape 4 years later.
witty_username 10y ago
Brexit hasn't occurred yet.
tormeh 10y ago
It's up in GBP, but that's because the pound has fallen. In dollar terms it's not up.

kevinburke 10y ago

It's pretty easy to see this as a referendum on Trump. Trade and immigration are generally good for an economy. Trump wants to sharply reduce both and has promised to deport millions of immigrants.

octo_t 10y ago

The FTSE 100 recovered, mostly because GBP lost out against the dollar. There was a bloomberg chart a few weeks back, comparing the FTSE in USD versus the FTSE in GBP and the difference was striking. Take away lesson: markets are complex...

xenadu02 10y ago

It's also worth remembering that no one has any idea what the long-term consequences are either. Brexit might never happen, it might happen and be a disaster, or it might happen and not really affect much. Similarly with Trump we have no idea what might happen if he does win. He could end up starting WW3, or call for the end of US Democracy and install himself as dictator (and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that).... or he might just end up a do-nothing president bounced out after 4 years. For that matter maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely progressive agenda. You never know what Trump might do. So yes, I predict a short-term crash, a recovery, but after that all bets are off. We're also due for a recession at some point. In fact Trump could be a blessing in disguise as he presides over a recession, bungles the response, and gets him and the rest of the Rs tossed out in 2018 or 2020. I'm torn about the whole thing because I will personally benefit from Republican control. I've finally made it into the tax bracket where their constant tax breaks for the rich personally benefit me. Long-term their rich-get-richer strategy will lead to anemic growth. Whoever said "may you live in interesting times" as a curse was right.

noobermin 10y ago
You're more right than you think. You reached such a tax bracket but for many of us who are much more powerless (like me), for many of us we can't wait 2 or 4 years.
lisper 10y ago
> maybe he's crazy like a fox and fed the Rs bullshit so they'd get behind him, then turn around and push for a hugely progressive agenda I'll give you long odds against. One thing is for certain: we just flushed our last hope of averting a global climate catastrophe down Donald Trump's gold-plated toilet.
- seanp2k2 10y ago
  Drill baby drill! It's going to be a wild ride.
botexpert 10y ago
> and now we know 50% of the country is stupid enough to go along with that this kind of superiority isolationism leads to the problem. it lead to brexit and to the election of many right-wing politicians in european countries. when a large mass of people is isolated and unrepresented, they will strike.
- tootie 10y ago
  There's no other explanation I can accept at this point. You can break down how he appealed to voter sentiment better than liberals because he obviously did, but you'll never convince me his policies won't go in the completely wrong direction for everyone.
  - botexpert 10y ago
    Hmm, but explanation is simple - protest votes - not "people are stupid and times are strange". Same thing happened at Brexit. These protest votes aren't act of stupidity, since these people are isolated from the political discourse, they know that either option won't change their well-being or at least they feel that after the protest votes they will be heard and someone will listen. If not Trump, then some new face in the political landscape 4 years later.

witty_username 10y ago

Brexit hasn't occurred yet.

tormeh 10y ago

It's up in GBP, but that's because the pound has fallen. In dollar terms it's not up.