4 ms·
To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan eve
by chiaro 10y ago
To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.
- trhway 10y agoLA times had it for trump. They had their own weighting. Their results when adjusted for commonly accepted weighting matched the common poll average. So it is in the weighting.
- chiaro 10y agoNo they didn't: >Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trai...
- trhway 10y agoYour link doesn't work for me. If you look at their Daybreak poll http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ you can see that they had Trump at 46.8 and Hillary at 43.6
- humanrebar 10y agoA new wrinkle on the Bradley effect, maybe? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
- inimino 10y agoA 30% probability event coming to pass isn't a black swan event. This term is unfortunately overused for anything unexpected but that isn't what it means.
- lucio 10y agoIt is a black swan event? or there are significant problems with the polls?