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I feel that I'm an educated person, and I try to keep up with politics in America, but I really don't understand our system. How can some states be called with

I feel that I'm an educated person, and I try to keep up with politics in America, but I really don't understand our system. How can some states be called with less than 20% of the votes being counted?

coddingtonbear 10y ago
Exit polling, usually.
andr 10y ago
Just like there are swing states, there are swing counties. As soon as you figure their results out, you can call the state with a good degree of confidence.
positr0n 10y ago
I believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.
- shostack 10y ago
  Is there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?
  - mattnumbe 10y ago
    I also feel like that would be the case, but they usually call it after the polls have closed in that state.
  - Natsu 10y ago
    Calling the election early was certainly blamed for the results back in 2000.
  - positr0n 10y ago
    I have never seen a state called for a candidate until after the polls have closed. Probably for that reason.
    - cstejerean 10y ago
      Sure, it won't impact the election in that state because it's polls are closed. But in theory it could affect the election on the west coast were polls are still open.
  - protomyth 10y ago
    Looks like record turnout tonight, so in theory yes but probably not tonight. Plus, a lot of down ticket contests keep people interested.
smcl 10y ago
It's weird - I see "Reporting %" as a stat but it's not clear to me whether that means "percentage of possible votes counted" or "percentage of counties/constituencies counted". If it means the latter then I can absolutely see why 20% would call it, it just means there's lots of low-population counties. If the former then it's just speculation I think.
protomyth 10y ago
If the 20% is from the Democratic part of the state and the rest of the districts to report are Republicans and the Democrat is not ahead (or reversed) then you can make a call. It really does matter which districts have fully reported.
Someone 10y ago
'Call' doesn't mean the result is guaranteed; it means that the person making the call is very sure that will be the result. See it as "if I were a bookmaker, I would take a X:1 bet on this" for a fairly large value of X. Those making a call will typically check how well the results for the counties that reported results so far correlate with the polls and historical results, guesstimate what that would mean for the other counties, and call it when they think the result is clear (hopefully, they employ statisticians to make the call, but even then, it remains an inexact science) For example, if a state has had over 90% votes for party P in all its counties in the past ten elections, the polls say that won't change, results of ten percent of counties nicely distributed over the state in terms of city/countryside, rich/poor, race, etc. show it hasn't changed, making the call that P will win is easy. Everybody would take that bet. For an example of 'calling it' going wrong, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman.

coddingtonbear 10y ago

Exit polling, usually.

andr 10y ago

Just like there are swing states, there are swing counties. As soon as you figure their results out, you can call the state with a good degree of confidence.

positr0n 10y ago

I believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.

shostack 10y ago
Is there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?
- mattnumbe 10y ago
  I also feel like that would be the case, but they usually call it after the polls have closed in that state.
- Natsu 10y ago
  Calling the election early was certainly blamed for the results back in 2000.
- positr0n 10y ago
  I have never seen a state called for a candidate until after the polls have closed. Probably for that reason.
  - cstejerean 10y ago
    Sure, it won't impact the election in that state because it's polls are closed. But in theory it could affect the election on the west coast were polls are still open.
- protomyth 10y ago
  Looks like record turnout tonight, so in theory yes but probably not tonight. Plus, a lot of down ticket contests keep people interested.

smcl 10y ago

It's weird - I see "Reporting %" as a stat but it's not clear to me whether that means "percentage of possible votes counted" or "percentage of counties/constituencies counted". If it means the latter then I can absolutely see why 20% would call it, it just means there's lots of low-population counties. If the former then it's just speculation I think.

protomyth 10y ago

If the 20% is from the Democratic part of the state and the rest of the districts to report are Republicans and the Democrat is not ahead (or reversed) then you can make a call. It really does matter which districts have fully reported.

Someone 10y ago

'Call' doesn't mean the result is guaranteed; it means that the person making the call is very sure that will be the result. See it as "if I were a bookmaker, I would take a X:1 bet on this" for a fairly large value of X. Those making a call will typically check how well the results for the counties that reported results so far correlate with the polls and historical results, guesstimate what that would mean for the other counties, and call it when they think the result is clear (hopefully, they employ statisticians to make the call, but even then, it remains an inexact science) For example, if a state has had over 90% votes for party P in all its counties in the past ten elections, the polls say that won't change, results of ten percent of counties nicely distributed over the state in terms of city/countryside, rich/poor, race, etc. show it hasn't changed, making the call that P will win is easy. Everybody would take that bet. For an example of 'calling it' going wrong, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman.