Two very strong counterarguments should be made: 1) Going for analysis of ecosystem evolution and trying to predict new business avenues from there leads to "t

Two very strong counterarguments should be made: 1) Going for analysis of ecosystem evolution and trying to predict new business avenues from there leads to "too-early" failure cases. Lots of startups fail because they were too early to the market. More startups fail because there is no market than because the market is crowded, and arriving to a market before it exists is probably the worse form of failing because of market absence. 2) First mover advantage is not that much of an advantage. It is important, but lots of unicorns are second movers. Comments here already highlight a few, I'd like to add Apple. Apple mostly refined products that were already in the market and profited handsomely from that (no negative tone here, pretty much the opposite).