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The conventional wisdom is that you must cannibalize your existing business yourself, otherwise someone else will. Seems to me that VW and BMW are not really p

The conventional wisdom is that you must cannibalize your existing business yourself, otherwise someone else will. Seems to me that VW and BMW are not really pushing for EVs as much as they should – at least, I don't know anyone who is buying them instead of a VW or BMW with an internal combustion engine. Then again, I live in Finland, where nobody has an EV anyway.

xiphias 10y ago
For me just the fact that they are not looking at gas cars as something to change as fast as possible and don't talk about its health problems mean that I don't want them to provide me with EVs in the future. I have a BMW, but it's my last gas powered car.
- metafunctor 10y ago
  I would absolutely love to buy a reasonably priced EV from VW (be it under the VW, Audi, or Škoda brand). I have a Škoda, and it's going to be my last gas powered car. So far, I haven't seen anything from VW or BMW that meets the performance, range, and cool factors anything like the Tesla does. I will not buy a hybrid, it seems like the worst of both worlds to me.
paganel 10y ago
I live in Romania and why would I buy an EV? I cannot charge it over night because I live in a 10-stories-high building, not to mention that there are close to no public EV charging places spread throughout the country. On top of that an EV is expensive as hell. I've bought my SH petrol car around 2 years ago for 4,000 euros, and it's been a blast to drive it (I've done a 4,000 km European tour this summer with it). I don't see prices for SH electric vehicles going to under 5000 euros in the next 15 to 20 years. As a matter of fact, no-one is quite sure how reliable SH electric vehicles will be. As things stand out right now my iPhone4 might as well be from the stone-age (cannot install any new apps on it, almost all the existing apps on it have stopped working), and it's only a 4 to 5-year old piece of electronics.
- arethuza 10y ago
  An awful lot of people living in flats/apartments in older buildings in European cities are going to have similar problems. I'd like to try an EV or plug-in hybrid but the practicalities of living in central Edinburgh pretty much make it impossible.
  - usrusr 10y ago
    If you only look at the part of the market that buys new cars (as opposed to second hand), the home charging problem becomes a lot smaller. Once EV have reached a certain saturation amongst new car buyers, the second hand market might take some very interesting turns when that generation of cars is about to change ownership from original buyers with a high rate of home charging availability to second hand buyers with a low rate. If you are one of the comparatively rare second hand buyers with available home charging, you might see a very favorable market.
  - klipt 10y ago
    Self driving taxis solves that problem. Very few people will actually own cars.
- noja 10y ago
  You won't buy an EV, you will rent one or hire one.
  - arethuza 10y ago
    Why would the level of renting/hiring be different for EVs than for conventional vehicles?
    - maxerickson 10y ago
      Would the parking situation not be amenable at all to metered chargers? There's a lot of social conventions and what not to work out there, but I doubt any of it would be insurmountable. For overnight charging, a cord that you activate with your phone, with the activation locked to one vehicle, solves many of them.
maxerickson 10y ago
Batteries are still too expensive to be 'really pushing' electric vehicles. In the US with our low gas taxes, neither the Bolt nor Model 3 make a great deal of financial sense, even after the swell $7500 tax credit.
- greglindahl 10y ago
  Lots of people already buy cars that are not the cheapest possible car. Sure, if electric vehicles were cheaper than an equivalent gas-powered car, then that would be awesome... but even if that isn't true yet, there are a lot of people who'd like an electric car anyway.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    Estimating from the 400,000 Model 3 preorders, that group is in the low millions. Meanwhile US auto sales are 1 million+ per month. The larger automakers are all working on electric platforms, they aren't ignoring the market that is there, or more importantly, the market that will exist as costs come down. But the point is that they don't really have much to gain from getting way out in front of the battery costs.
- spectrum1234 10y ago
  This just isn't true. The cost of ownership of a Model 3 vs even a Civic will save almost $2k/year. Cost of ownership wise nothing will be cheaper. Check your facts.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    So I'm wrong because a car shipping in volume in 12-18 months will be cheaper than a car I can buy right now? I also wonder about the math. Edmunds puts a Civic at about $5000 a year (for 15,000 miles): http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2016/cost-to-own/ http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2016/cost-to-own/ To save $2000 a year over that, a Model 3 has to go ~10 years with minimal costs beyond electricity.
jonknee 10y ago
I live in Seattle and electric BMWs are everywhere thanks to BMW's own ReachNow car sharing service: http://www.bmwcarsharing.com/ http://www.bmwcarsharing.com/ Basically the cars are paid for by the minute and come with free street parking. You can unlock/lock through the app or a smartcard. This feels like BMW is trying to both figure out EVs and a possible post car ownership society. Tesla will be similarly doomed when most people don't own their own cars (Tesla's most valuable asset is its brand and that means nothing when you aren't buying the car!).
- arethuza 10y ago
  I could see car sharing services being a route for having electric cars in older cities - we already have a City Car Club dedicated parking area close to us and I could see that getting chargers installed whereas I can't see them being installed generally for a long time.
- usrusr 10y ago
  Or maybe this is just their best effort at hitting fleet-average CO2 emissions goals without bolstering EV numbers by giving them away for free. It looks like cheating, but if this gets any kind of traction (and enable more non-poverty-driven carlessness), it will be a much better result for the environment than selling more, but slightly cleaner cars would have been. Creative bookkeeping by selling to their own rental subsidies is nothing new in the car industry. The BMW carsharing fleets improve on that by not only creating favorable numbers, but also making them take part in a new market that might well be a significant part in future of car usage.
  - jonknee 10y ago
    Considering only 1 of 3 models in ReachNow is an EV I doubt that's the case.
- baq 10y ago
  1. Tesla is pivoting into an energy company that happens to make cars on the side. If it doesn't die because Model 3 flops (not saying that it will or won't, mind you) its future looks quite bright. 2. Teslas driving around right now are doing what they call fleet learning for self-driving purposes. 3. Tesla is absolutely getting ready for post ownership era of motorization, in fact the autopilot effort and announcements regarding for-profit car sharing only being available through Tesla network directly confirm that.
rukenshia 10y ago
disclaimer: I work for Volkswagen. that being said, Volkswagen certainly is pushing electric vehicles now, all internal talk, newsletters are about the MEB (modular electric "toolbox", same as the current MQB for our conventional vehicles). The next investment meeting for the following 5 years is this november, a lot of money will certainly go for investments in electric vehicles.
forgetsusername 10y ago
>Then again, I live in Finland, where nobody has an EV anyway Because very few people buy $75,000 cars, period. I don't know a single person either, and I'm in Canada. I know people here act like Tesla has already built and sold all these $35,000 Model 3s, but the truth is nobody has built an EV for the mainstream yet. Because it's hard.

xiphias 10y ago

For me just the fact that they are not looking at gas cars as something to change as fast as possible and don't talk about its health problems mean that I don't want them to provide me with EVs in the future. I have a BMW, but it's my last gas powered car.

metafunctor 10y ago
I would absolutely love to buy a reasonably priced EV from VW (be it under the VW, Audi, or Škoda brand). I have a Škoda, and it's going to be my last gas powered car. So far, I haven't seen anything from VW or BMW that meets the performance, range, and cool factors anything like the Tesla does. I will not buy a hybrid, it seems like the worst of both worlds to me.

paganel 10y ago

I live in Romania and why would I buy an EV? I cannot charge it over night because I live in a 10-stories-high building, not to mention that there are close to no public EV charging places spread throughout the country. On top of that an EV is expensive as hell. I've bought my SH petrol car around 2 years ago for 4,000 euros, and it's been a blast to drive it (I've done a 4,000 km European tour this summer with it). I don't see prices for SH electric vehicles going to under 5000 euros in the next 15 to 20 years. As a matter of fact, no-one is quite sure how reliable SH electric vehicles will be. As things stand out right now my iPhone4 might as well be from the stone-age (cannot install any new apps on it, almost all the existing apps on it have stopped working), and it's only a 4 to 5-year old piece of electronics.

arethuza 10y ago
An awful lot of people living in flats/apartments in older buildings in European cities are going to have similar problems. I'd like to try an EV or plug-in hybrid but the practicalities of living in central Edinburgh pretty much make it impossible.
- usrusr 10y ago
  If you only look at the part of the market that buys new cars (as opposed to second hand), the home charging problem becomes a lot smaller. Once EV have reached a certain saturation amongst new car buyers, the second hand market might take some very interesting turns when that generation of cars is about to change ownership from original buyers with a high rate of home charging availability to second hand buyers with a low rate. If you are one of the comparatively rare second hand buyers with available home charging, you might see a very favorable market.
- klipt 10y ago
  Self driving taxis solves that problem. Very few people will actually own cars.
noja 10y ago
You won't buy an EV, you will rent one or hire one.
- arethuza 10y ago
  Why would the level of renting/hiring be different for EVs than for conventional vehicles?
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    Would the parking situation not be amenable at all to metered chargers? There's a lot of social conventions and what not to work out there, but I doubt any of it would be insurmountable. For overnight charging, a cord that you activate with your phone, with the activation locked to one vehicle, solves many of them.

maxerickson 10y ago

Batteries are still too expensive to be 'really pushing' electric vehicles. In the US with our low gas taxes, neither the Bolt nor Model 3 make a great deal of financial sense, even after the swell $7500 tax credit.

greglindahl 10y ago
Lots of people already buy cars that are not the cheapest possible car. Sure, if electric vehicles were cheaper than an equivalent gas-powered car, then that would be awesome... but even if that isn't true yet, there are a lot of people who'd like an electric car anyway.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  Estimating from the 400,000 Model 3 preorders, that group is in the low millions. Meanwhile US auto sales are 1 million+ per month. The larger automakers are all working on electric platforms, they aren't ignoring the market that is there, or more importantly, the market that will exist as costs come down. But the point is that they don't really have much to gain from getting way out in front of the battery costs.
spectrum1234 10y ago
This just isn't true. The cost of ownership of a Model 3 vs even a Civic will save almost $2k/year. Cost of ownership wise nothing will be cheaper. Check your facts.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  So I'm wrong because a car shipping in volume in 12-18 months will be cheaper than a car I can buy right now? I also wonder about the math. Edmunds puts a Civic at about $5000 a year (for 15,000 miles): http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2016/cost-to-own/ http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2016/cost-to-own/ To save $2000 a year over that, a Model 3 has to go ~10 years with minimal costs beyond electricity.

jonknee 10y ago

I live in Seattle and electric BMWs are everywhere thanks to BMW's own ReachNow car sharing service: http://www.bmwcarsharing.com/ http://www.bmwcarsharing.com/ Basically the cars are paid for by the minute and come with free street parking. You can unlock/lock through the app or a smartcard. This feels like BMW is trying to both figure out EVs and a possible post car ownership society. Tesla will be similarly doomed when most people don't own their own cars (Tesla's most valuable asset is its brand and that means nothing when you aren't buying the car!).

arethuza 10y ago
I could see car sharing services being a route for having electric cars in older cities - we already have a City Car Club dedicated parking area close to us and I could see that getting chargers installed whereas I can't see them being installed generally for a long time.
usrusr 10y ago
Or maybe this is just their best effort at hitting fleet-average CO2 emissions goals without bolstering EV numbers by giving them away for free. It looks like cheating, but if this gets any kind of traction (and enable more non-poverty-driven carlessness), it will be a much better result for the environment than selling more, but slightly cleaner cars would have been. Creative bookkeeping by selling to their own rental subsidies is nothing new in the car industry. The BMW carsharing fleets improve on that by not only creating favorable numbers, but also making them take part in a new market that might well be a significant part in future of car usage.
- jonknee 10y ago
  Considering only 1 of 3 models in ReachNow is an EV I doubt that's the case.
baq 10y ago
1. Tesla is pivoting into an energy company that happens to make cars on the side. If it doesn't die because Model 3 flops (not saying that it will or won't, mind you) its future looks quite bright. 2. Teslas driving around right now are doing what they call fleet learning for self-driving purposes. 3. Tesla is absolutely getting ready for post ownership era of motorization, in fact the autopilot effort and announcements regarding for-profit car sharing only being available through Tesla network directly confirm that.

rukenshia 10y ago

disclaimer: I work for Volkswagen. that being said, Volkswagen certainly is pushing electric vehicles now, all internal talk, newsletters are about the MEB (modular electric "toolbox", same as the current MQB for our conventional vehicles). The next investment meeting for the following 5 years is this november, a lot of money will certainly go for investments in electric vehicles.

forgetsusername 10y ago

>Then again, I live in Finland, where nobody has an EV anyway Because very few people buy $75,000 cars, period. I don't know a single person either, and I'm in Canada. I know people here act like Tesla has already built and sold all these $35,000 Model 3s, but the truth is nobody has built an EV for the mainstream yet. Because it's hard.