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Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of. They also have the nerve to attack them in their own

by flexie 10y ago

Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of. They also have the nerve to attack them in their own backyard where they can take advantage of German suppliers etc. What will be next? A Gigafactory in Europe? This is great news for people who like tech but must be worrying for the German automakers who have yet to come up with a trustworthy answer to Tesla. I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. The EVs that they have come up with as answers to Tesla are almost cartoonish like vehicles. Take a look at this Mercedes EQ: http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/29/mercedes-benz-generation-eq-concept-paris-official/ http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/29/mercedes-benz-generation-... Or this VW I.D.: https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/28/meet-the-i-d-volkswagens-first-purely-electric-car-on-track-for-2020/ https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/28/meet-the-i-d-volkswagens-f... Same blue lights. I bet they will come with a space suit and a laser gun as well. Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like. Mind you that this is something they plan to market in 2020 so it will probably be 2021 or later. And their planned 2020 EVs are inferior to Tesla model S, X and 3 in 2016/2017 in many ways, not just design wise. It is as though they think only hipsters will drive EVs in any foreseeable future. So when in 2021 they realise that they underestimated that ordinary people want an EV that looks no more spacey than a combustion engine car, but comes with wireless upgrades, long range batteries, large trunk, fast acceleration, high safety rating etc., they will have to wait another 3-4 years until they have a real answer ready. By then, model 3 has been on the market for close to a decade and even better Tesla models with better range, faster charging etc. have been introduced. And the Tesla cars will have been trained with tens of billions of miles of self driving by then. How are the Germans going to catch up?

draggnar 10y ago
I disagree, what they've done is externalized many of the risks (battery fires, unforeseen supplier bottlenecks, etc) and maintained focus on building cars that people want right now. They haven't been able to keep Tesla from entering the market and becoming a competitor. Perhaps the next disruptive innovation in transportation will prove to actually be disruptive but so far EVs haven't. Most people don't up and buy the newest car as soon as it comes out, so 3 to 4 years might not be as damaging as all the risks could have been.
- jsight 10y ago
  The issue is going to be what they do over the next 3 to 4 years. It will be extremely difficult for a major automaker to make a major push towards electric vehicles right now. It isn't so much technical limitations as it is internal business problems. They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure and building a marketing machine that would advocate for "the car of the future". That car would be a minority of their sales and yet the marketing message would immediately make their other cars seem obsolete. Basically, noone can take the market seriously until very late in the game (maybe 5 - 10 years from now). I agree with your point that this may not hurt them that much in the long run, though.
  - jodrellblank 10y ago
    They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure Love the way my car is tied to refills only from the car manufacturer's brand of gas station because it's the only one with the right shaped nozzles. :rolleyes: for an annoying future.
    - jarkko 10y ago
      Tesla uses the standard Type2 plug in Europe. You can also charge any Type2 equipped car with the Tesla home charger (EU model). Most Tesla owners I know have the CHAdeMO adapter as well, so can pretty much charge from every fast charger available.
  - usrusr 10y ago
    Well, at least internal business problems should be considered "ruled out" by now at Volkswagen... I fully agree on the difficulty and importance of infrastructure, this is something where it would be really difficult to match Tesla, at the volume of a mainstream brand. When Tesla says that their cars are sold at a profit, the wording seems to be very carefully chosen to avoid admitting that the package of car plus charging network access is not.
- flexie 10y ago
  I don't know (m)any company as innovative and disruptive as Tesla. Apple, maybe. And if anything, Tesla is internalizing risks with the strategy of vertical integration. Do more Teslas catch fire than ordinary cars? I doubt it. Tesla has some 400,000 buyers literally paying $1,000 for the honour of getting in line for years to pay Tesla another $35,000 for a model 3. Which other automaker has customers that passionate? Sure, Apple had a few thousand waiting for days in front of their stores before every iPhone. But that was college kids. But show me an automaker that can excite people as much as Tesla. I hope that there will serious competition for Tesla, but I think VW and Mercedes are not the ones.
erikb 10y ago
And as always it will also be a battle for the engineers. I'm German and have only seen a few German companies really fight for engineering power. Only example I can think of is Zalando. The reason probably is that the average engineer is better educated than in many other countries, maybe better than in the US. But in exchange we don't have as much exceptional talent. This influences hiring preferences a lot, since a team of (high) average people can outperform a rockstar and can still be cheaper. But here it doesn't apply, since it's a vastly new technology on all levels of production. You really need the rockstars since they will be the one building the new technologies. So when the big car companies realize what they need to do all the great engineers who can do it will already work for Tesla. So I have to agree. The battle hasn't really begun yet, but the war already seems over.
- mhd 10y ago
  The whole "rock star" notion was/is silly enough in IT, where qualifications differ wildly, and automotive engineering has a much more level playing field.
  - bitL 10y ago
    It's changing, cars are quickly turning into digital appliances and moreover there is a huge push to "connected services", meaning huge amount of real-time data and ML. I have seen slightly above average engineers landing senior architect roles there just by being close to Big Data/ML, in Germany of course.
- ff10 10y ago
  The German car companies already have hired great engineers, but thankfully they couldn't care less about the "rockstar" label. You draw a direct line from software engineering to automobile engineering, without honoring the fact that those two branches are fundamentally different in Germany.
  - erikb 10y ago
    That automobile engineering is different from software engineering in Germany is kind of agreeing with what I say. That people still think that is one of the major reasons why German car companies will fall behind. And you also agree that a car companies would worry about hiring great car engineers (i.e. the people who build great old-style cars) instead of great software engineers (the people who automate the machines to build the new-style cars). You need to have 50-50 car engineers and software engineers and they need to work together to make that move happen. Do you think a guy with a black Star Wars t-shirt and an Arch Linux running Thinkpad could get any meaningful say in product development at any big German company, car companies and banks especially? If you would answer that with "no" we basically have the same view on how the German industry looks like. What we may not agree on is if that can succeed any longer in the automobile market.
nerthus 10y ago
At least, you can see, that they are working on it. For example mercedes/daimler is working on energy storage near Dresden [1] for homes [2]. Mercedes is pushing this fab with €500mil [3]. Furthermore, there is another fab right next to it, which startet a few years earlier [4]. As for the bankruptcy speculation: they are too big to fail - whatever the consequences might be for the german taxpayer. [1] http://www.accumotive.de/de/home-englisch.html http://www.accumotive.de/de/home-englisch.html [2] https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/ https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/ [3] http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektromobilitaet-Daimler-steckt-500-Millionen-Euro-in-Akku-Produktion-3125055.html http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektromobilitaet-Dai... (german) [4] https://www.li-tec.de/en https://www.li-tec.de/en
- silphe 10y ago
  Might not a full-blown bankruptcy. Rather, a slow march into irrelevancy.
avar 10y ago
> concept cars[...]represent what they expect > their EVs should look like. You're greater point about German automotive manufacturers is good, but I don't think it makes any sense to point to how ridiculous looking concept cars are as an argument. Most auto companies have ridiculous looking concept cars, the silly designs almost never make it to production, or if they do are significantly amended.
- usrusr 10y ago
  To extend on your point: they have been presenting ridiculous concept cars for decades, if there is anything to read into the observation that the current crop of ridiculous concept cars tends to be electric it is that they are serious about phasing out their dependence on the business of building internal combustion engines. Which will still hit them hard, because the value of wrapping a giant battery in a car is about as low as wrapping a combustion engine in a car. The difference is that they made the engines in-house, whereas the batteries will most likely be third party commodity parts. They tried setting up their own battery production lines, but utterly failed at making them at competitive prices.
nedsma 10y ago
I'd love to agree with you, but major European car manufacturers have excellent relationships with the EU and the national governments and they will lobby whatever is necessary to keep their industries running. Even though there are initiatives to sell only electric cars in Germany by 2030, I doubt this is going to happen. The switch from ICE powered cars to electric ones is being observed with great uncertainty as the car industry keeps warning the public that the eventual switch is not going to come without losing jobs since it's apparently simpler to manufacture electric cars. And the average German employee (Arbeitnehmer) who accidentally happens to work in the automobile sector will not be considering buying an electric car for the fear that it might cost him the employment. German automakers actually worry about the trends in the US, the southeast Asia & China, and it's realistic to expect that their image/sale numbers is going to suffer if they don't offer viable electric cars and not unpractical and expensive concept cars. At home, their power is unrivaled.
- ff10 10y ago
  Do you have any evidence that buying an electric car is costing an automobile employee the employment? Provocatively: If I would buy an i3 while working at BMW I might lose my job?
  - doczoidberg 10y ago
    this statement is wrong. Nobody buys EVs because they are not an alternative yet. However this may change in 3-8 years. And then there will be german automakers with the best EVs in the world.
    - ff10 10y ago
      The i3 is a fantastic alternative for short to medium range already.
      - doczoidberg 10y ago
        no. It's still too expensive.
mhd 10y ago
"Greatest external challenge to the German auto industry"? Do you mean "electric auto industry"? Because that's a tiny fraction of the whole and the growing rates don't seem that exciting, despite subsidies and hype.
thomasahle 10y ago
The BMW i3 is actually the best selling Electric car in Europe: http://evobsession.com/europe-electric-car-sales-september-2016-bmw-i3-takes-1/ http://evobsession.com/europe-electric-car-sales-september-2... And I believe it's top four worldwide. VW also has quite a few cars in the market, like the e-golf: http://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf http://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf
- yannski 10y ago
  So you're basing your conclusion on a graph that's mixing EV and PHEV? And only for the month of August? BTW due to its seasonality you cannot make any assumptions about the car market by looking at only 1 month.
  - phillc73 10y ago
    Even if that chart is only for one month, the website does include sales data for longer periods. Back in August 2016, they published an article claiming there are now 500,000 EVs on European roads.[1] I think one interesting point to keep in mind is that German manufacturers aren't the only European game in town. The Renault Zoe is the overall best selling European EV. Also, addressing an earlier comment, the Zoe EV doesn't look exceptionally futuristic. It really is an almost exact copy of the petrol Zoe. I find myself just looking for the exhaust in order to distinguish the two from a moderate distance. Smaller, city going vehicles have a history of being more popular in Europe (Fiat 500, Mini, Polo, Smart etc), where roads don't tend to be as wide. I see quite a few Zoes and i3s in my moderate sized European city. They feel like the perfect commuting vehicle and second car, even if not particularly suited to long motorway miles. [1] http://evobsession.com/500000-electric-cars-now-european-roads-charts/ http://evobsession.com/500000-electric-cars-now-european-roa...
  - mikeash 10y ago
    Mixing in PHEVs doesn't hurt anything. Just ignore those. The conclusion remains.
- mtgx 10y ago
  Mainly because of price. When Model 3 arrives it will probably sell 4x as many in Europe, both because it will be a bit cheaper, but also because it will be a much better car.
Tomte 10y ago
At least VW and BMW have real, practical and selling EVs. But those are huge companies. They cannot say "let's only sell EVs". They can't even say "let's downplay gas-driven cars and emphasize EVs". What do you want them to do? Fire 95% of employees and sell 1% of the cars they are selling today? Of course Tesla looks forward-looking. They are all-EV, they are fighting for profitability, they don't have existing business to protect. And protect you must your existing business. "Pivoting" is one of the favourite words in VC and startup circles, but it's also fairy-land, not a plausible economic decision in this situation.
- metafunctor 10y ago
  The conventional wisdom is that you must cannibalize your existing business yourself, otherwise someone else will. Seems to me that VW and BMW are not really pushing for EVs as much as they should – at least, I don't know anyone who is buying them instead of a VW or BMW with an internal combustion engine. Then again, I live in Finland, where nobody has an EV anyway.
  - xiphias 10y ago
    For me just the fact that they are not looking at gas cars as something to change as fast as possible and don't talk about its health problems mean that I don't want them to provide me with EVs in the future. I have a BMW, but it's my last gas powered car.
    - metafunctor 10y ago
      I would absolutely love to buy a reasonably priced EV from VW (be it under the VW, Audi, or Škoda brand). I have a Škoda, and it's going to be my last gas powered car. So far, I haven't seen anything from VW or BMW that meets the performance, range, and cool factors anything like the Tesla does. I will not buy a hybrid, it seems like the worst of both worlds to me.
  - paganel 10y ago
    I live in Romania and why would I buy an EV? I cannot charge it over night because I live in a 10-stories-high building, not to mention that there are close to no public EV charging places spread throughout the country. On top of that an EV is expensive as hell. I've bought my SH petrol car around 2 years ago for 4,000 euros, and it's been a blast to drive it (I've done a 4,000 km European tour this summer with it). I don't see prices for SH electric vehicles going to under 5000 euros in the next 15 to 20 years. As a matter of fact, no-one is quite sure how reliable SH electric vehicles will be. As things stand out right now my iPhone4 might as well be from the stone-age (cannot install any new apps on it, almost all the existing apps on it have stopped working), and it's only a 4 to 5-year old piece of electronics.
bpicolo 10y ago
I don't expect BMW to die. They seem highly adaptable and build great cars with first class engineering, and have invested in building EVs as well.
ceterum_censeo 10y ago
> Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of. The greatest challenge they faced is one they still face: the Japanese auto manufacturers. Toyota remains unbeatable on quality; the pursuit of Toyota is claimed as an element of VW's recent fall from grace. At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume (current and planned) or quality. > I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp (e: and the i series are likely produced under a more efficient and sustainable production process, but it's hard to find a single link in support of this claim) > Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like. They are concepts, and so are explorations of design elements, features, etc. DFM changes the design significantly, even if one tries to keep to the concept. > How are the Germans going to catch up? They already have, they are just much more conservative in releasing their products because of earned experience. e: When the demand is present, the Germans and other incumbent manufacturers will be ready. This article reflects Tesla playing catchup with respect to automation, something the incumbents have already figured out.
- maratd 10y ago
  > At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume They're far more than a blip. They are easily outselling their Japanese and German competition in their segment. Luxury cars. > Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. They did. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market. > The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. It does. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market. > The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models Because it's tiny. It's like a clown car. The simple fact is that the Germans know if they put out an EV sedan or SUV, they will cannibalize their own market share and their investments in combustion engine manufacturing, which are massive, will be lost. They are trying to slowly transition to EV. Tesla is using that to their advantage and eroding their market share. https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/01/US-luxury-car-sales-2015.png https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/01/US-luxury-car-sales-... That was last year. This year is going to be worse for them.
the_duke 10y ago
The major manufacturers have a huge amount of engineering talent and resources, they have plenty of the `rockstars`, as you call them. This is about automation of production, and you can be sure that the manufacturers with their highly optimized supply chains and production lines have done a lot to make them very efficient. Going as automatic as possible is often not the cheapest solution, and not the best decision with regards to public relations, lobbying power, etc. And probably not where we want to go. People need jobs after all... Of course, big corps are also cautious and slower to move. The reason why they haven't aggressively tackled EVs is because the market is not there. It's tiny. (for now) Almost everyone is working on EVs and building up know how, but why would they go into it aggressively? They do just fine with gas guzzlers. There are also big challenges with scaling up to large numbers, as seen by Tesla's issues with available batteries. I admire Tesla for pushing innovations and creating a market. But that's almost always the role of newcomers, not the big, entrenched players. My biggest fear is that Tesla will get chewed up in pushing technology and innovating, to the point of going bankrupt. Then the old manufacturers will swoop in and take over. (and buy up the know how)
ldev 10y ago
>I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. In 5-10 years EU won't even have comfortable infrastructure for EVs, so no, no, petrol car makers will be fine.
pmcollins 10y ago
Tesla will do to the legacy auto companies what Apple did to flip-phone companies. But it's not because legacy auto companies are bad at design (which they are), it's because they all, without exception, suck at software. Here's a reminder re: Toyota's coding practices: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9440094 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9440094 Not one of them will be able to touch where Tesla will be in a few years from a software perspective, and that's where all the differentiating value will be in the coming wave of new automotive technology.
pizzapill 10y ago
The thing is, this are big German Cooperations and they will be late to the Game for ~ 20 years. As is tradition. German banks just launched their own PayPal with way, way more bureaucracy for their customers and way less features. VW and Mercedes had electric car prototypes when I was a kid in the 90s but they never did anything with it.
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kayoone 10y ago
Tesla needs to push for EV only, they need to disrupt, otherwise nobody would even take notice. Keep in mind that they still have to prove real profitability. Meanwhile the german built very economic high tech cars, ever sat in a new Audi with their Virtual Cockpit ? Teslas interiors with the monstrous LCD look and feel like toys in contrast, it's not even close. Modern diesel and petrol engines are super efficient and quiet, the infrastructure is everywhere, there is just no case for an EV only reality right now, it does not exist. Yet, they are working on EVs, trying different things and you can bet they will be ready when they have to. I love Tesla and Musks Masterplan, but i also realise that he is a marketing and PR genius and it remains to be seen where Teslas will end up in the next 10 years. Realistically you should worry about Teslas future in the next 10 years as opposed to VW/Merc/Bmw.
- Tepix 10y ago
  A combustion engine is not quiet when compared to EV. Besides, the Volkswagen scandal has erased a lot of goodwill and eroded trust in Diesel technology.
spiderfarmer 10y ago
I am sort of a Tesla fanboy but you're clearly living in the bubble. I am rooting for Tesla because I like electric driving, but the hype is far removed from reality. The car industry is not sitting still, like Nokia. They are gradually preparing for the EV revolution. Just like Tesla is preparing for mass production. > They also have the nerve to attack them in their own backyard where they can take advantage of German suppliers etc. What will be next? A Gigafactory in Europe? Maybe. They allready have a factory next door from Germany, in The Netherlands, just like the German manufaturers have factories in the US. Tesla is just going after the talent they couldn't find in the US. Nothing wrong with that. If BMW acquired a manufacturing specialist, noone would notice. But for Tesla it's still special. > Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like. No, they are concept cars. Concept cars have always looked a little ridiculous. Yes, the production i3 looks quite ridiculous in my opinion, but BMW never meant to sell them in any meaningful quantities. It's an experiment that sells better than expected. BMW have also announced fully electric mini's and X3's. They will be a little later to the game when compared to Tesla. But this is historically not a winner takes all market. > And the Tesla cars will have been trained with tens of billions of miles of self driving by then. We all don't know how this market is going to develop (legally and technically) and which companies will be cooperating / sharing data. There are still a lot of ways to catch up. Maybe new technology comes along that will slash the amount of required training data, obliterating Tesla's advantage. We don't know. > How are the Germans going to catch up? They have the knowledge and infrastructure to scale up manufacturing across a broad line of models. They also have loyal customers who trust their brands. In a lot of markets, VW's cars were still selling even during / after the software debacle.
- usrusr 10y ago
  Nokia wasn't sitting still either, they just refused to be yet another brand repackaging a third party OS. In that sense, there is actually quite a lot of similarity: where Nokia was reluctant to repackage Android, car manufacturers are reluctant to give up their engines as the central value-adding component. An EV drivetrain is trivial except for the battery and the charging infrastructure, access to which is implicitly sold with each Tesla. Both of them are about as alien to a company that is good at making engines as becoming a Google, Amazon or Facebook would be.
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Shivetya 10y ago
GM pretty much proved that the idea that big automakers will be left behind as very very wrong. the German manufacturers aren't going to fare badly. they just don't toot their own horn with undelivered products as much if at all. the real truth is Tesla is the one who has to watch out, the large makers have the resources to do what they want and when they want too, again look at GM and how quickly the Bolt came to market and came to market done right.
devy 10y ago
> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. "None of them have taken EV serious yet"? You must have not pay attention to the news for the past few years. BMW is ALL IN on EV!!! [1][2] [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/01/bmw-electrify-entire-lineup/ https://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/01/bmw-electrify-entire-li... [2] http://evobsession.com/bmw-still-aiming-models-go-electric-next-decade/ http://evobsession.com/bmw-still-aiming-models-go-electric-n...
prostoalex 10y ago
> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet Notwithstanding the somewhat muddy relationship between car brands and their business entities (Wikipedia has a helpful reminder that Volkswagen Group owns Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Volkswagen marques; motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the marques MAN, Scania, Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles), in defense of VW, people are not currently choosing between a Volkswagen and a Model S/X. You're right about BMW and Mercedes (with the caveat that their parent Daimler AG owns quite a few brands for various submarkets that are unlikely to stop selling all at the same time) competing in luxury space - Tesla vehicles with their (comparable) lack of maintenance and cost of fueling offers a very attractive deal to luxury sedan and luxury SUV submarkets. BMW, MB, Lexus, Inifiniti, Jaguar and Land Rover would be the main brands competing for that submarket.
PinguTS 10y ago
It seems you have no clue about the industry. > I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. Then you have to believe that also Ford, GM, Toyota, and other will be bankrupt in 5 to 10 years. VW is next to Toyota the biggest car seller in the world, with Toyota currently the leader. BUT they are not doing cars only, they are also in commercial vehicles. Second, also those car manufacturer have one big difference to Tesla, they have working manufacturing plants that build cars at a much higher automated level than Tesla does. VW has manufacturing facilities where one car is a sedan with the VW brand and the next one a convertible with an Audi brand. Tesla can't even produce Model S and Model X on the very same line depending on demand. They have separated lines. The very key knowledge of all the existing car companies is production, and running production lines. If they want they could easily produce also other products that requires comparable assembly. Actually, the car companies do not really care about the type of drive train. They care about the profit. They could fit any drive train into almost any car easily, when they want and if this would provide profit. But electric cars are currently have no profit. That is the problem. By the way, most automotive knowledge is also by the TIER1. Did you know that e.g. the Model X braking system is developed, build, and delivered by BOSCH? Also that most of the design of the manufacturing plants is provided by German companies, which is an open secret in the industry.
- enraged_camel 10y ago
  >>VW is next to Toyota the biggest car seller in the world That may be so, but they are in deep, deep shit due to the emissions scandal. Especially now that it looks like Audis may also have defeat devices in them: http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/11/audis-may-have-cheated-on-co2-emissions-and-new-vw-exec-under-investigation/ http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/11/audis-may-have-cheated-o... There are certain types of scandals that even huge companies cannot recover from. We'll see how things play out for VW...
  - mrich 10y ago
    Unfortunately a large portion of VW is state-owned so they will be bailed out anyway since a lot of jobs in that state depend on them.
justifier 10y ago
> Tesla CEO Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel are in Germany today to announce the acquisition of a German engineering group, Grohmann Engineering. Following the announcement, they held a press conference during which Musk emphasised that Tesla is planning “significant investments” in Germany and the conversation quickly moved to Tesla not only investing in engineering in Europe, but also in production. Musk confirmed that Tesla plans to choose a location for ‘Gigafactory 2’ in Europe next year and he added that the factory will combine both the production of batteries and complete cars. https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-europe-2017-both-batteries-and-cars/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-...
robomartin 10y ago
We are seeing the Innovator's Dilemma playing out in real time for all to see. Interesting.
Animats 10y ago
Ordinary people want an EV that looks no more spacey than a combustion engine car, but comes with wireless upgrades, long range batteries, large trunk, fast acceleration, high safety rating etc. That describes the Chevy Bolt.[1] It comes off the same production line as the Chevy Sonic and looks about the same. At one assembly station, either a gas engine or a battery pack and motor go in. Reports are that every fourth or fifth car off that line is a Bolt. GM has the option of adjusting that ratio based on sales. That one line can make 90,000 cars a year per shift. They're only running one shift right now. So Chevy has, running right now, the capacity to make as many Bolts as they can sell, and can adjust output as needed. [1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20161105/OEM04/161109897/gm-cautiously-ramps-up-bolt-output http://www.autonews.com/article/20161105/OEM04/161109897/gm-...
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  And yet, no one stands in line to reserve a Chevy Bolt, or to buy one for that matter.
  - ghaff 10y ago
    Eh. I was just talking to someone this weekend who was calling around trying to find a Bolt they could test drive but there're apparently in very tight supply. I think GM will do fine.
    - toomuchtodo 10y ago
      Even as a Tesla investor, I hope so. I don't care who wins, as long as EV uptake proceeds quickly. Otherwise, humanity is boned.
nameisu 10y ago
if they are really at risk of going out of business you have no idea how fast they will change. Major OEM's and oil companies just don't want to change now.
ph0rque 10y ago
What will be next? A Gigafactory in Europe? Yes: https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-europe-2017-both-batteries-and-cars/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-...
forgetsusername 10y ago
>I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. None of them are taking it seriously, huh? You should try reading news other than this board, where everybody thinks that Tesla is dominating the entire industry, when in fact they have a tiny market share and competitors are coming on strong from all angles: Ford, GM, BMW, Apple, Google...companies that are printing billions in profits. But the German majors will be bankrupt in 5 years? Okay. Why is it that the Tesla fans have to wish ill on the competition? It's better for all of us if everyone produces good EVs.
nodesocket 10y ago
> This is great news for people who like tech but must be worrying for the German automakers who have yet to come up with a trustworthy answer to Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and really admire the amazing work they are doing. I would love a Tesla Model 3. Howerver, I'd rather have a Mercedes GLE Coupe [1]. There is really nothing like owning a luxury German automobile. Also, while I am sure Tesla is on their radar, their sales are still a fraction of sales of BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi, etc. [1] https://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/class/class-GLE/bodystyle-CPE https://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/class/class-GLE/body...

by flexie 10y ago

draggnar 10y ago

I disagree, what they've done is externalized many of the risks (battery fires, unforeseen supplier bottlenecks, etc) and maintained focus on building cars that people want right now. They haven't been able to keep Tesla from entering the market and becoming a competitor. Perhaps the next disruptive innovation in transportation will prove to actually be disruptive but so far EVs haven't. Most people don't up and buy the newest car as soon as it comes out, so 3 to 4 years might not be as damaging as all the risks could have been.

jsight 10y ago
The issue is going to be what they do over the next 3 to 4 years. It will be extremely difficult for a major automaker to make a major push towards electric vehicles right now. It isn't so much technical limitations as it is internal business problems. They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure and building a marketing machine that would advocate for "the car of the future". That car would be a minority of their sales and yet the marketing message would immediately make their other cars seem obsolete. Basically, noone can take the market seriously until very late in the game (maybe 5 - 10 years from now). I agree with your point that this may not hurt them that much in the long run, though.
- jodrellblank 10y ago
  They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure Love the way my car is tied to refills only from the car manufacturer's brand of gas station because it's the only one with the right shaped nozzles. :rolleyes: for an annoying future.
  - jarkko 10y ago
    Tesla uses the standard Type2 plug in Europe. You can also charge any Type2 equipped car with the Tesla home charger (EU model). Most Tesla owners I know have the CHAdeMO adapter as well, so can pretty much charge from every fast charger available.
- usrusr 10y ago
  Well, at least internal business problems should be considered "ruled out" by now at Volkswagen... I fully agree on the difficulty and importance of infrastructure, this is something where it would be really difficult to match Tesla, at the volume of a mainstream brand. When Tesla says that their cars are sold at a profit, the wording seems to be very carefully chosen to avoid admitting that the package of car plus charging network access is not.
flexie 10y ago
I don't know (m)any company as innovative and disruptive as Tesla. Apple, maybe. And if anything, Tesla is internalizing risks with the strategy of vertical integration. Do more Teslas catch fire than ordinary cars? I doubt it. Tesla has some 400,000 buyers literally paying $1,000 for the honour of getting in line for years to pay Tesla another $35,000 for a model 3. Which other automaker has customers that passionate? Sure, Apple had a few thousand waiting for days in front of their stores before every iPhone. But that was college kids. But show me an automaker that can excite people as much as Tesla. I hope that there will serious competition for Tesla, but I think VW and Mercedes are not the ones.

erikb 10y ago

And as always it will also be a battle for the engineers. I'm German and have only seen a few German companies really fight for engineering power. Only example I can think of is Zalando. The reason probably is that the average engineer is better educated than in many other countries, maybe better than in the US. But in exchange we don't have as much exceptional talent. This influences hiring preferences a lot, since a team of (high) average people can outperform a rockstar and can still be cheaper. But here it doesn't apply, since it's a vastly new technology on all levels of production. You really need the rockstars since they will be the one building the new technologies. So when the big car companies realize what they need to do all the great engineers who can do it will already work for Tesla. So I have to agree. The battle hasn't really begun yet, but the war already seems over.

mhd 10y ago
The whole "rock star" notion was/is silly enough in IT, where qualifications differ wildly, and automotive engineering has a much more level playing field.
- bitL 10y ago
  It's changing, cars are quickly turning into digital appliances and moreover there is a huge push to "connected services", meaning huge amount of real-time data and ML. I have seen slightly above average engineers landing senior architect roles there just by being close to Big Data/ML, in Germany of course.
ff10 10y ago
The German car companies already have hired great engineers, but thankfully they couldn't care less about the "rockstar" label. You draw a direct line from software engineering to automobile engineering, without honoring the fact that those two branches are fundamentally different in Germany.
- erikb 10y ago
  That automobile engineering is different from software engineering in Germany is kind of agreeing with what I say. That people still think that is one of the major reasons why German car companies will fall behind. And you also agree that a car companies would worry about hiring great car engineers (i.e. the people who build great old-style cars) instead of great software engineers (the people who automate the machines to build the new-style cars). You need to have 50-50 car engineers and software engineers and they need to work together to make that move happen. Do you think a guy with a black Star Wars t-shirt and an Arch Linux running Thinkpad could get any meaningful say in product development at any big German company, car companies and banks especially? If you would answer that with "no" we basically have the same view on how the German industry looks like. What we may not agree on is if that can succeed any longer in the automobile market.

nerthus 10y ago

At least, you can see, that they are working on it. For example mercedes/daimler is working on energy storage near Dresden [1] for homes [2]. Mercedes is pushing this fab with €500mil [3]. Furthermore, there is another fab right next to it, which startet a few years earlier [4]. As for the bankruptcy speculation: they are too big to fail - whatever the consequences might be for the german taxpayer. [1] http://www.accumotive.de/de/home-englisch.html http://www.accumotive.de/de/home-englisch.html [2] https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/ https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/ [3] http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektromobilitaet-Daimler-steckt-500-Millionen-Euro-in-Akku-Produktion-3125055.html http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektromobilitaet-Dai... (german) [4] https://www.li-tec.de/en https://www.li-tec.de/en

silphe 10y ago
Might not a full-blown bankruptcy. Rather, a slow march into irrelevancy.

avar 10y ago

> concept cars[...]represent what they expect > their EVs should look like. You're greater point about German automotive manufacturers is good, but I don't think it makes any sense to point to how ridiculous looking concept cars are as an argument. Most auto companies have ridiculous looking concept cars, the silly designs almost never make it to production, or if they do are significantly amended.

usrusr 10y ago
To extend on your point: they have been presenting ridiculous concept cars for decades, if there is anything to read into the observation that the current crop of ridiculous concept cars tends to be electric it is that they are serious about phasing out their dependence on the business of building internal combustion engines. Which will still hit them hard, because the value of wrapping a giant battery in a car is about as low as wrapping a combustion engine in a car. The difference is that they made the engines in-house, whereas the batteries will most likely be third party commodity parts. They tried setting up their own battery production lines, but utterly failed at making them at competitive prices.

nedsma 10y ago

I'd love to agree with you, but major European car manufacturers have excellent relationships with the EU and the national governments and they will lobby whatever is necessary to keep their industries running. Even though there are initiatives to sell only electric cars in Germany by 2030, I doubt this is going to happen. The switch from ICE powered cars to electric ones is being observed with great uncertainty as the car industry keeps warning the public that the eventual switch is not going to come without losing jobs since it's apparently simpler to manufacture electric cars. And the average German employee (Arbeitnehmer) who accidentally happens to work in the automobile sector will not be considering buying an electric car for the fear that it might cost him the employment. German automakers actually worry about the trends in the US, the southeast Asia & China, and it's realistic to expect that their image/sale numbers is going to suffer if they don't offer viable electric cars and not unpractical and expensive concept cars. At home, their power is unrivaled.

ff10 10y ago
Do you have any evidence that buying an electric car is costing an automobile employee the employment? Provocatively: If I would buy an i3 while working at BMW I might lose my job?
- doczoidberg 10y ago
  this statement is wrong. Nobody buys EVs because they are not an alternative yet. However this may change in 3-8 years. And then there will be german automakers with the best EVs in the world.
  - ff10 10y ago
    The i3 is a fantastic alternative for short to medium range already.
    - doczoidberg 10y ago
      no. It's still too expensive.

mhd 10y ago

"Greatest external challenge to the German auto industry"? Do you mean "electric auto industry"? Because that's a tiny fraction of the whole and the growing rates don't seem that exciting, despite subsidies and hype.

thomasahle 10y ago

The BMW i3 is actually the best selling Electric car in Europe: http://evobsession.com/europe-electric-car-sales-september-2016-bmw-i3-takes-1/ http://evobsession.com/europe-electric-car-sales-september-2... And I believe it's top four worldwide. VW also has quite a few cars in the market, like the e-golf: http://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf http://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf

yannski 10y ago
So you're basing your conclusion on a graph that's mixing EV and PHEV? And only for the month of August? BTW due to its seasonality you cannot make any assumptions about the car market by looking at only 1 month.
- phillc73 10y ago
  Even if that chart is only for one month, the website does include sales data for longer periods. Back in August 2016, they published an article claiming there are now 500,000 EVs on European roads.[1] I think one interesting point to keep in mind is that German manufacturers aren't the only European game in town. The Renault Zoe is the overall best selling European EV. Also, addressing an earlier comment, the Zoe EV doesn't look exceptionally futuristic. It really is an almost exact copy of the petrol Zoe. I find myself just looking for the exhaust in order to distinguish the two from a moderate distance. Smaller, city going vehicles have a history of being more popular in Europe (Fiat 500, Mini, Polo, Smart etc), where roads don't tend to be as wide. I see quite a few Zoes and i3s in my moderate sized European city. They feel like the perfect commuting vehicle and second car, even if not particularly suited to long motorway miles. [1] http://evobsession.com/500000-electric-cars-now-european-roads-charts/ http://evobsession.com/500000-electric-cars-now-european-roa...
- mikeash 10y ago
  Mixing in PHEVs doesn't hurt anything. Just ignore those. The conclusion remains.
mtgx 10y ago
Mainly because of price. When Model 3 arrives it will probably sell 4x as many in Europe, both because it will be a bit cheaper, but also because it will be a much better car.

Tomte 10y ago

At least VW and BMW have real, practical and selling EVs. But those are huge companies. They cannot say "let's only sell EVs". They can't even say "let's downplay gas-driven cars and emphasize EVs". What do you want them to do? Fire 95% of employees and sell 1% of the cars they are selling today? Of course Tesla looks forward-looking. They are all-EV, they are fighting for profitability, they don't have existing business to protect. And protect you must your existing business. "Pivoting" is one of the favourite words in VC and startup circles, but it's also fairy-land, not a plausible economic decision in this situation.

metafunctor 10y ago
The conventional wisdom is that you must cannibalize your existing business yourself, otherwise someone else will. Seems to me that VW and BMW are not really pushing for EVs as much as they should – at least, I don't know anyone who is buying them instead of a VW or BMW with an internal combustion engine. Then again, I live in Finland, where nobody has an EV anyway.
- xiphias 10y ago
  For me just the fact that they are not looking at gas cars as something to change as fast as possible and don't talk about its health problems mean that I don't want them to provide me with EVs in the future. I have a BMW, but it's my last gas powered car.
  - metafunctor 10y ago
    I would absolutely love to buy a reasonably priced EV from VW (be it under the VW, Audi, or Škoda brand). I have a Škoda, and it's going to be my last gas powered car. So far, I haven't seen anything from VW or BMW that meets the performance, range, and cool factors anything like the Tesla does. I will not buy a hybrid, it seems like the worst of both worlds to me.
- paganel 10y ago
  I live in Romania and why would I buy an EV? I cannot charge it over night because I live in a 10-stories-high building, not to mention that there are close to no public EV charging places spread throughout the country. On top of that an EV is expensive as hell. I've bought my SH petrol car around 2 years ago for 4,000 euros, and it's been a blast to drive it (I've done a 4,000 km European tour this summer with it). I don't see prices for SH electric vehicles going to under 5000 euros in the next 15 to 20 years. As a matter of fact, no-one is quite sure how reliable SH electric vehicles will be. As things stand out right now my iPhone4 might as well be from the stone-age (cannot install any new apps on it, almost all the existing apps on it have stopped working), and it's only a 4 to 5-year old piece of electronics.

bpicolo 10y ago

I don't expect BMW to die. They seem highly adaptable and build great cars with first class engineering, and have invested in building EVs as well.

ceterum_censeo 10y ago

> Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of. The greatest challenge they faced is one they still face: the Japanese auto manufacturers. Toyota remains unbeatable on quality; the pursuit of Toyota is claimed as an element of VW's recent fall from grace. At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume (current and planned) or quality. > I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp (e: and the i series are likely produced under a more efficient and sustainable production process, but it's hard to find a single link in support of this claim) > Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like. They are concepts, and so are explorations of design elements, features, etc. DFM changes the design significantly, even if one tries to keep to the concept. > How are the Germans going to catch up? They already have, they are just much more conservative in releasing their products because of earned experience. e: When the demand is present, the Germans and other incumbent manufacturers will be ready. This article reflects Tesla playing catchup with respect to automation, something the incumbents have already figured out.

maratd 10y ago
> At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume They're far more than a blip. They are easily outselling their Japanese and German competition in their segment. Luxury cars. > Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. They did. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market. > The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. It does. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market. > The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models Because it's tiny. It's like a clown car. The simple fact is that the Germans know if they put out an EV sedan or SUV, they will cannibalize their own market share and their investments in combustion engine manufacturing, which are massive, will be lost. They are trying to slowly transition to EV. Tesla is using that to their advantage and eroding their market share. https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/01/US-luxury-car-sales-2015.png https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/01/US-luxury-car-sales-... That was last year. This year is going to be worse for them.

the_duke 10y ago

The major manufacturers have a huge amount of engineering talent and resources, they have plenty of the `rockstars`, as you call them. This is about automation of production, and you can be sure that the manufacturers with their highly optimized supply chains and production lines have done a lot to make them very efficient. Going as automatic as possible is often not the cheapest solution, and not the best decision with regards to public relations, lobbying power, etc. And probably not where we want to go. People need jobs after all... Of course, big corps are also cautious and slower to move. The reason why they haven't aggressively tackled EVs is because the market is not there. It's tiny. (for now) Almost everyone is working on EVs and building up know how, but why would they go into it aggressively? They do just fine with gas guzzlers. There are also big challenges with scaling up to large numbers, as seen by Tesla's issues with available batteries. I admire Tesla for pushing innovations and creating a market. But that's almost always the role of newcomers, not the big, entrenched players. My biggest fear is that Tesla will get chewed up in pushing technology and innovating, to the point of going bankrupt. Then the old manufacturers will swoop in and take over. (and buy up the know how)

ldev 10y ago

>I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. In 5-10 years EU won't even have comfortable infrastructure for EVs, so no, no, petrol car makers will be fine.

pmcollins 10y ago

Tesla will do to the legacy auto companies what Apple did to flip-phone companies. But it's not because legacy auto companies are bad at design (which they are), it's because they all, without exception, suck at software. Here's a reminder re: Toyota's coding practices: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9440094 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9440094 Not one of them will be able to touch where Tesla will be in a few years from a software perspective, and that's where all the differentiating value will be in the coming wave of new automotive technology.

pizzapill 10y ago

The thing is, this are big German Cooperations and they will be late to the Game for ~ 20 years. As is tradition. German banks just launched their own PayPal with way, way more bureaucracy for their customers and way less features. VW and Mercedes had electric car prototypes when I was a kid in the 90s but they never did anything with it.

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kayoone 10y ago

Tesla needs to push for EV only, they need to disrupt, otherwise nobody would even take notice. Keep in mind that they still have to prove real profitability. Meanwhile the german built very economic high tech cars, ever sat in a new Audi with their Virtual Cockpit ? Teslas interiors with the monstrous LCD look and feel like toys in contrast, it's not even close. Modern diesel and petrol engines are super efficient and quiet, the infrastructure is everywhere, there is just no case for an EV only reality right now, it does not exist. Yet, they are working on EVs, trying different things and you can bet they will be ready when they have to. I love Tesla and Musks Masterplan, but i also realise that he is a marketing and PR genius and it remains to be seen where Teslas will end up in the next 10 years. Realistically you should worry about Teslas future in the next 10 years as opposed to VW/Merc/Bmw.

Tepix 10y ago
A combustion engine is not quiet when compared to EV. Besides, the Volkswagen scandal has erased a lot of goodwill and eroded trust in Diesel technology.

spiderfarmer 10y ago

I am sort of a Tesla fanboy but you're clearly living in the bubble. I am rooting for Tesla because I like electric driving, but the hype is far removed from reality. The car industry is not sitting still, like Nokia. They are gradually preparing for the EV revolution. Just like Tesla is preparing for mass production. > They also have the nerve to attack them in their own backyard where they can take advantage of German suppliers etc. What will be next? A Gigafactory in Europe? Maybe. They allready have a factory next door from Germany, in The Netherlands, just like the German manufaturers have factories in the US. Tesla is just going after the talent they couldn't find in the US. Nothing wrong with that. If BMW acquired a manufacturing specialist, noone would notice. But for Tesla it's still special. > Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like. No, they are concept cars. Concept cars have always looked a little ridiculous. Yes, the production i3 looks quite ridiculous in my opinion, but BMW never meant to sell them in any meaningful quantities. It's an experiment that sells better than expected. BMW have also announced fully electric mini's and X3's. They will be a little later to the game when compared to Tesla. But this is historically not a winner takes all market. > And the Tesla cars will have been trained with tens of billions of miles of self driving by then. We all don't know how this market is going to develop (legally and technically) and which companies will be cooperating / sharing data. There are still a lot of ways to catch up. Maybe new technology comes along that will slash the amount of required training data, obliterating Tesla's advantage. We don't know. > How are the Germans going to catch up? They have the knowledge and infrastructure to scale up manufacturing across a broad line of models. They also have loyal customers who trust their brands. In a lot of markets, VW's cars were still selling even during / after the software debacle.

usrusr 10y ago
Nokia wasn't sitting still either, they just refused to be yet another brand repackaging a third party OS. In that sense, there is actually quite a lot of similarity: where Nokia was reluctant to repackage Android, car manufacturers are reluctant to give up their engines as the central value-adding component. An EV drivetrain is trivial except for the battery and the charging infrastructure, access to which is implicitly sold with each Tesla. Both of them are about as alien to a company that is good at making engines as becoming a Google, Amazon or Facebook would be.

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Shivetya 10y ago

GM pretty much proved that the idea that big automakers will be left behind as very very wrong. the German manufacturers aren't going to fare badly. they just don't toot their own horn with undelivered products as much if at all. the real truth is Tesla is the one who has to watch out, the large makers have the resources to do what they want and when they want too, again look at GM and how quickly the Bolt came to market and came to market done right.

devy 10y ago

> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. "None of them have taken EV serious yet"? You must have not pay attention to the news for the past few years. BMW is ALL IN on EV!!! [1][2] [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/01/bmw-electrify-entire-lineup/ https://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/01/bmw-electrify-entire-li... [2] http://evobsession.com/bmw-still-aiming-models-go-electric-next-decade/ http://evobsession.com/bmw-still-aiming-models-go-electric-n...

prostoalex 10y ago

> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet Notwithstanding the somewhat muddy relationship between car brands and their business entities (Wikipedia has a helpful reminder that Volkswagen Group owns Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Volkswagen marques; motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the marques MAN, Scania, Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles), in defense of VW, people are not currently choosing between a Volkswagen and a Model S/X. You're right about BMW and Mercedes (with the caveat that their parent Daimler AG owns quite a few brands for various submarkets that are unlikely to stop selling all at the same time) competing in luxury space - Tesla vehicles with their (comparable) lack of maintenance and cost of fueling offers a very attractive deal to luxury sedan and luxury SUV submarkets. BMW, MB, Lexus, Inifiniti, Jaguar and Land Rover would be the main brands competing for that submarket.

PinguTS 10y ago

It seems you have no clue about the industry. > I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. Then you have to believe that also Ford, GM, Toyota, and other will be bankrupt in 5 to 10 years. VW is next to Toyota the biggest car seller in the world, with Toyota currently the leader. BUT they are not doing cars only, they are also in commercial vehicles. Second, also those car manufacturer have one big difference to Tesla, they have working manufacturing plants that build cars at a much higher automated level than Tesla does. VW has manufacturing facilities where one car is a sedan with the VW brand and the next one a convertible with an Audi brand. Tesla can't even produce Model S and Model X on the very same line depending on demand. They have separated lines. The very key knowledge of all the existing car companies is production, and running production lines. If they want they could easily produce also other products that requires comparable assembly. Actually, the car companies do not really care about the type of drive train. They care about the profit. They could fit any drive train into almost any car easily, when they want and if this would provide profit. But electric cars are currently have no profit. That is the problem. By the way, most automotive knowledge is also by the TIER1. Did you know that e.g. the Model X braking system is developed, build, and delivered by BOSCH? Also that most of the design of the manufacturing plants is provided by German companies, which is an open secret in the industry.

enraged_camel 10y ago
>>VW is next to Toyota the biggest car seller in the world That may be so, but they are in deep, deep shit due to the emissions scandal. Especially now that it looks like Audis may also have defeat devices in them: http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/11/audis-may-have-cheated-on-co2-emissions-and-new-vw-exec-under-investigation/ http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/11/audis-may-have-cheated-o... There are certain types of scandals that even huge companies cannot recover from. We'll see how things play out for VW...
- mrich 10y ago
  Unfortunately a large portion of VW is state-owned so they will be bailed out anyway since a lot of jobs in that state depend on them.

justifier 10y ago

> Tesla CEO Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel are in Germany today to announce the acquisition of a German engineering group, Grohmann Engineering. Following the announcement, they held a press conference during which Musk emphasised that Tesla is planning “significant investments” in Germany and the conversation quickly moved to Tesla not only investing in engineering in Europe, but also in production. Musk confirmed that Tesla plans to choose a location for ‘Gigafactory 2’ in Europe next year and he added that the factory will combine both the production of batteries and complete cars. https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-europe-2017-both-batteries-and-cars/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-...

robomartin 10y ago

We are seeing the Innovator's Dilemma playing out in real time for all to see. Interesting.

Animats 10y ago

Ordinary people want an EV that looks no more spacey than a combustion engine car, but comes with wireless upgrades, long range batteries, large trunk, fast acceleration, high safety rating etc. That describes the Chevy Bolt.[1] It comes off the same production line as the Chevy Sonic and looks about the same. At one assembly station, either a gas engine or a battery pack and motor go in. Reports are that every fourth or fifth car off that line is a Bolt. GM has the option of adjusting that ratio based on sales. That one line can make 90,000 cars a year per shift. They're only running one shift right now. So Chevy has, running right now, the capacity to make as many Bolts as they can sell, and can adjust output as needed. [1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20161105/OEM04/161109897/gm-cautiously-ramps-up-bolt-output http://www.autonews.com/article/20161105/OEM04/161109897/gm-...

toomuchtodo 10y ago
And yet, no one stands in line to reserve a Chevy Bolt, or to buy one for that matter.
- ghaff 10y ago
  Eh. I was just talking to someone this weekend who was calling around trying to find a Bolt they could test drive but there're apparently in very tight supply. I think GM will do fine.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Even as a Tesla investor, I hope so. I don't care who wins, as long as EV uptake proceeds quickly. Otherwise, humanity is boned.

nameisu 10y ago

if they are really at risk of going out of business you have no idea how fast they will change. Major OEM's and oil companies just don't want to change now.

ph0rque 10y ago

What will be next? A Gigafactory in Europe? Yes: https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-europe-2017-both-batteries-and-cars/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-location-gigafactory-2-...

forgetsusername 10y ago

>I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late. None of them are taking it seriously, huh? You should try reading news other than this board, where everybody thinks that Tesla is dominating the entire industry, when in fact they have a tiny market share and competitors are coming on strong from all angles: Ford, GM, BMW, Apple, Google...companies that are printing billions in profits. But the German majors will be bankrupt in 5 years? Okay. Why is it that the Tesla fans have to wish ill on the competition? It's better for all of us if everyone produces good EVs.

nodesocket 10y ago

> This is great news for people who like tech but must be worrying for the German automakers who have yet to come up with a trustworthy answer to Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and really admire the amazing work they are doing. I would love a Tesla Model 3. Howerver, I'd rather have a Mercedes GLE Coupe [1]. There is really nothing like owning a luxury German automobile. Also, while I am sure Tesla is on their radar, their sales are still a fraction of sales of BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi, etc. [1] https://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/class/class-GLE/bodystyle-CPE https://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/class/class-GLE/body...