This is false (or at least a poor interpretation of the data). Ceasefires make it more likely that future ceasefires will succeed. Steven Pinker and others have

This is false (or at least a poor interpretation of the data). Ceasefires make it more likely that future ceasefires will succeed. Steven Pinker and others have looked into this extensively. Here is a write-up of the opposing take. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/world/middleeast/another-cease-fire-in-syria-it-could-matter-even-if-it-fails.html http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/world/middleeast/another-c...