Why use student t distribution? Why not ask Nate Silver: "This mostly makes a difference for very low-probability events. For example, for an event that a norm

Why use student t distribution? Why not ask Nate Silver: "This mostly makes a difference for very low-probability events. For example, for an event that a normal distribution regarded as a 1-in-1,000 chance, our t-distribution would assign odds of 1-in-180 instead, making it about six times as likely. A t-distribution is appropriate in cases like presidential elections where you have small sample sizes." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-... Anecdotally, the write ups at fivethirtyeight about the uncertainty in the data this year, and the effect on the forecasts, have been great reading. A few minor polling errors in a few key states could have big implications for the result. The fivethirtyeight model shows this, many others do not.