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I can't shake the feeling that the history of modern agriculture is just a history of staying one step ahead of disaster. We used intensive farming until it ru
by Bartweiss 10y ago
I can't shake the feeling that the history of modern agriculture is just a history of staying one step ahead of disaster.
We used intensive farming until it ruined our soils. Then we used rotation farming with heavy irrigation until it collided with a drought. We used DDT until it killed the eagles and condors. We used nitrogen fertilizers until they triggered algae blooms and ruined our waterways. I see no particular reason to expect a different pattern; we keep putting things into widespread usage before their harms are known.
I'm not even sure I'm opposed to this; most of these crises have been mitigated and most of the changes have been reactive, to accommodate a population that grew regardless of agriculture. I'm just skeptical of claims that this time, rushing things into national use without long-term evaluation won't cause any harm.
- Kalium 10y agoOne could make a strong case that the entirety of human history is staying one step ahead of disaster. Political, economic, cultural, agricultural, and so on. One could very reasonably make a further case that it's generally those who embraced risk who did the best, long-term.
- Thimothy 10y agoWell, the explanation for that looks like it's a job for survivorship bias, isn't it?. I mean, we could not know about the huge amount of people that have died by betting their livehood in the wrong risk. Only that the stakes are higher this time, we are not talking about a few tribes trying their hand with agriculture, but messing with the food chain in a way that could spread continent-wide easily.
- Kalium 10y agoIt's possible! We do know about a number of societies that perished because their conservatism got them out-competed. That sort of competition hasn't gone away. The world of people capable of using CRISPR isn't going all agree to a cartel-type pact to never do certain things. There's too many people and the bar is too low.
- tunap 10y agoVery true for the notable successes, but let's not forget the large percentile of risk takers who ultimately fail in obscurity.