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This has about as much hype as Ginger (Segway Transporter) did before it was launched. Disrupting multi-billion dollar industries in a single bound, changing th

This has about as much hype as Ginger (Segway Transporter) did before it was launched. Disrupting multi-billion dollar industries in a single bound, changing the world forever at it's launch. But in reality what it really takes to disrupt an industry is both a disruptive product and a really compelling mass-market price point. One of the reasons the Segway PT failed is it was $6k to buy. That severely limits the addressable market to only the rich and those that really want a new form of transport. This is the same problem Magic Leap and Microsoft's Hololens have. If the product is more than say around $700, it's not going to be a mass consumer product, and it's not going to disrupt entire industries. The iPhone is a good example of a product that is sold for about the maximum price point a user can tolerate in most countries, and even then a lot of iPhones are sold in installments to bring the upfront cost down. I find it hard to imagine that Magic Leap can hit that entry level price point in a Version 1 product, and if they can't then there will be quite a few big tech companies gunning to catch up with their technology by the time they hit a V2 to erode there exclusivity. Just look at how Google turned Android around after the iPhone launched to go with full screen touch just 6 months after the iPhone.

bobsil1 10y ago
They're aiming for mobile pricing, and could subsidize just like mobile, $199 + wireless contract.
gwern 10y ago
The way I recollect it, this is so far very different from Segway. In the runup to the Segway release/announcement, all the hype was coming from the Segway people and the press was repeating it because they had nothing else to report besides potted biographies of Dean Kamen and his previous inventions. I don't remember tech journalists going in, getting to use the Segway for hours, and coming out and telling the world that it was going to change cities forever (even if they aren't allowed to explain exactly what 'Ginger' was). With Magic Leap, on the other hand, we have many people going in, using it live, and coming out and saying it's going to change everything, including people who have been watching tech hype bubbles form & pop since before you or I were born, like Kevin Kelly. I think we can be pretty confident that there is some extremely impressive technology in there and that the descriptions are not totally bogus, even if we remain uncertain how successful it'll be (eg VR headsets are technically impressive and do deliver presence and deliver on many promises, but have not yet set the world on fire).
kriro 10y ago
Counterpoint: the classical POV is that you start with a niche and worry about crossing the chasm later (and they require very different marketing strategies etc.). I'd argue Tesla is a modern example of executing that overall strategy from the getgo.
- Cthulhu_ 10y ago
  Tesla is / was only a half-niche though, cars are a strong and established market. They also had the (huge) benefit that their customers got tax breaks and subsidies because their cars are emission-free, dropping their effective price.

bobsil1 10y ago

They're aiming for mobile pricing, and could subsidize just like mobile, $199 + wireless contract.

gwern 10y ago

The way I recollect it, this is so far very different from Segway. In the runup to the Segway release/announcement, all the hype was coming from the Segway people and the press was repeating it because they had nothing else to report besides potted biographies of Dean Kamen and his previous inventions. I don't remember tech journalists going in, getting to use the Segway for hours, and coming out and telling the world that it was going to change cities forever (even if they aren't allowed to explain exactly what 'Ginger' was). With Magic Leap, on the other hand, we have many people going in, using it live, and coming out and saying it's going to change everything, including people who have been watching tech hype bubbles form & pop since before you or I were born, like Kevin Kelly. I think we can be pretty confident that there is some extremely impressive technology in there and that the descriptions are not totally bogus, even if we remain uncertain how successful it'll be (eg VR headsets are technically impressive and do deliver presence and deliver on many promises, but have not yet set the world on fire).

kriro 10y ago

Counterpoint: the classical POV is that you start with a niche and worry about crossing the chasm later (and they require very different marketing strategies etc.). I'd argue Tesla is a modern example of executing that overall strategy from the getgo.

Cthulhu_ 10y ago
Tesla is / was only a half-niche though, cars are a strong and established market. They also had the (huge) benefit that their customers got tax breaks and subsidies because their cars are emission-free, dropping their effective price.