2 ms·

they loved it until Hillary was losing

• mtgx 10y ago
  Probably. They're right 538 has been all over the map this election cycle though. 538 never thought Trump would win the nomination, or that Sanders would surpass 15%, for instance. I think the problem is in part because polls are relatively flawed. They can't really account for stuff like activism or excitement. For example, a poll may ask me "who will you vote for tomorrow? Trump or Clinton?" And I'll say, "Ugh, Clinton, I guess." And then I won't show up for the vote because I don't like Clinton and my favorite TV show just appeared on Netflix. The other part is that 538 may try to account for all of these extra factors in their model - but still do it poorly and fail big time. This sort of stuff gets worse the more "unpredictable" and crazy the race is, which is why 538 failed to predict Trump and Sanders' rise. When it's more predictable and everything is accounted for and everyone is where it should, that's when 538 seem like Nostradamus and get 99% of it right.
  • SixSigma 10y ago
    He got famous for predicting tomorrow would be like today. If you said "no change" when he got 50 / 50 you would have got 48 / 50.