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This seems like an overly-rosy picture of the future and fully autonomous driving is starting to feel like HAL-like AI, which has been perpetually 20 years away

This seems like an overly-rosy picture of the future and fully autonomous driving is starting to feel like HAL-like AI, which has been perpetually 20 years away since 1968. I think the reality here is that we don't have the fuzzy logic and AI to handle snow covering up lane markers or heavy rain and other conditions humans handle with relative ease. I also think, politically, its just going to be a tough sell and any edge case crash that leads to fatalities will quickly change people's minds about the future of autonomous driving. >they don't even have seat-belts - and we 'gasp' ... 'OMG' Yet seatbelts were mandatory in 1959 and the usage rate in the 1980s was around 50%, which led to mandatory usage legislation in the late 80's and 90's. So the "20 year" metric of everything changing is questionable as half the population ignored the seatbelts in their cars 20+ years later. Its only via expensive ticketing and enforcement that we convinced most people to even wear them, when their safety benefits were obvious! I think this overly-rosy view of the future gets ad impressions for the tech press and gets readers excited, but the technical issues with night, snow, rain, etc visibility aren't solved. I imagine until we get better AI, they won't be. Driving just has way too many difficult edge cases that lead to fatal outcomes and because of that, its not going to be something quickly replaced by machines. Augmentation and assistance for human drivers is the most likely outcome here.

vivekd 10y ago
I wonder if this problem could be solved if governments participated by making roads friendlier to automated cars. Teaching a car to drive like a human seems to be something that will take centuries. But if governments installed transponders onto roads for self driving cars, it seems like the process would only take 20 or so years at the most. Our roads and infrastructure evolved to accommodate cars, but that was at a time when governments were much better at encouraging and adapting to new technology. I wonder if governments will do anything to incorporate self driving technology into infrastructure.
DamnInteresting 10y ago
> I think the reality here is that we don't have the fuzzy logic and AI to handle snow covering up lane markers... True, but improved AI isn't the only way to address such problems. For instance, thermal cameras can see through light snow, so those may become standard. Also, something like RFID embedded an inch or two below the road surface could serve as marker enhancers. If all else fails, GPS and highly accurate maps can stand in for road markers in many areas. Besides, snow won't be as much of an issue if self-driving snowplows get started shortly after snowfall begins.

vivekd 10y ago

I wonder if this problem could be solved if governments participated by making roads friendlier to automated cars. Teaching a car to drive like a human seems to be something that will take centuries. But if governments installed transponders onto roads for self driving cars, it seems like the process would only take 20 or so years at the most. Our roads and infrastructure evolved to accommodate cars, but that was at a time when governments were much better at encouraging and adapting to new technology. I wonder if governments will do anything to incorporate self driving technology into infrastructure.

DamnInteresting 10y ago

> I think the reality here is that we don't have the fuzzy logic and AI to handle snow covering up lane markers... True, but improved AI isn't the only way to address such problems. For instance, thermal cameras can see through light snow, so those may become standard. Also, something like RFID embedded an inch or two below the road surface could serve as marker enhancers. If all else fails, GPS and highly accurate maps can stand in for road markers in many areas. Besides, snow won't be as much of an issue if self-driving snowplows get started shortly after snowfall begins.