4 ms·
Tuesday Shouldn't Change the Narrative
- internaut 10y agoI think this is only true if the election results are both fair (irrelevant levels of cheating or human error) and close. Should Trump win by a significant margin e.g. > 4%, that should cause you to ask whether systemic bias exists in polling. I think most of us in Europe concluded something like this when Brexit occurred. Some people were claiming the polling was accurate but the reporting was inaccurate, however when I doubled checked the polling I could see no discrepancy. Most of that weeks polls were very wrong and so were the bookmakers, the people with strong incentives to discern truth from bullshit. Take a look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United... It is really remarkable. Internet polls are accurate?!! Who knew! Depending on your reasons for believing in a significant prejudice in polling, that could indeed change the narrative.