General models the produce approximations are all well and good. The problem arises when economists pick a model to make a precise prediction, without nuance, a

General models the produce approximations are all well and good. The problem arises when economists pick a model to make a precise prediction, without nuance, about some event in the future or some trend over time; that's when people switch off. I think people in general people have learnt to be skeptical about economic forecasts, and that is only a good thing in my view. "About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know. Nevertheless, the necessity for action and for decision compels us as practical men to do our best to overlook this awkward fact.." -- Maynard Keynes