If we take Nigeria as an example: Their oil industry is worth about 10% of GDP [1] so if it were to halve in, say, 20 years you are looking at a drag of 0.25% G

If we take Nigeria as an example: Their oil industry is worth about 10% of GDP [1] so if it were to halve in, say, 20 years you are looking at a drag of 0.25% GDP per year. And since oil profits mostly benefit only an elite group of kleptocrats, the average Nigerian will hardly notice the effect. In fact, it may be beneficial for Nigeria because it would greatly reduce the 'resource curse' and force government to be more accountable to the people [2] [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse