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Whether it is 5, 15 or 50 years hence, peak oil demand will surely come. Technological innovations will see to that. The question I have is what will that mean

Whether it is 5, 15 or 50 years hence, peak oil demand will surely come. Technological innovations will see to that. The question I have is what will that mean for all our friends in OPEC nations? Venezuela is in most estimates already a failed state and thats simply due to mismanagement. What happens when structured demand erosion starts to take hold and no amount of state level management can stop it? For those who say poverty breeds desperation breeds terrorism (which I don't ascribe to) we'll no doublet be in for a few volatile decades indeed until it all gets sorted.

MarkMc 10y ago
If we take Nigeria as an example: Their oil industry is worth about 10% of GDP [1] so if it were to halve in, say, 20 years you are looking at a drag of 0.25% GDP per year. And since oil profits mostly benefit only an elite group of kleptocrats, the average Nigerian will hardly notice the effect. In fact, it may be beneficial for Nigeria because it would greatly reduce the 'resource curse' and force government to be more accountable to the people [2] [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
- sqeaky 10y ago
  Rich people hate losing their money. I do not know how, but I am sure the average Nigerian would feel the effect somehow. It could take any form but one I thought of is some kind of contrived import tax could be created to 'encourage' to locals to buy local oil instead of foreign solar panels.
cmrdporcupine 10y ago
Oil price collapse in Alberta led to the election of its first not-super-right-wing gov't since the 1930s. It's since become fairly unpopular (something about not being able to wave a magic miracle wand and make oil prices go back up, so everything is their fault) but it's an interesting rupture.

MarkMc 10y ago

If we take Nigeria as an example: Their oil industry is worth about 10% of GDP [1] so if it were to halve in, say, 20 years you are looking at a drag of 0.25% GDP per year. And since oil profits mostly benefit only an elite group of kleptocrats, the average Nigerian will hardly notice the effect. In fact, it may be beneficial for Nigeria because it would greatly reduce the 'resource curse' and force government to be more accountable to the people [2] [1] http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

sqeaky 10y ago
Rich people hate losing their money. I do not know how, but I am sure the average Nigerian would feel the effect somehow. It could take any form but one I thought of is some kind of contrived import tax could be created to 'encourage' to locals to buy local oil instead of foreign solar panels.

cmrdporcupine 10y ago

Oil price collapse in Alberta led to the election of its first not-super-right-wing gov't since the 1930s. It's since become fairly unpopular (something about not being able to wave a magic miracle wand and make oil prices go back up, so everything is their fault) but it's an interesting rupture.