There's too much distortion in the signal to confidently draw that conclusion. Particularly in oil, where the middle East has huge reserves of stuff that's easy

There's too much distortion in the signal to confidently draw that conclusion. Particularly in oil, where the middle East has huge reserves of stuff that's easy to reach but for the unstable states on top of it; and where the rich countries have been throwing away unfathomable amounts of capital to reach small pockets of oil that diminish rapidly.