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I hear you on peak supply, which has always been a moving target due to discovery of new source or method of extraction. But projecting oil consumption has bee
by pcurve 10y ago
I hear you on peak supply, which has always been a moving target due to discovery of new source or method of extraction.
But projecting oil consumption has been fairly stable. In fact, it's basically been a straight line for the past 50 years, with couple of temp spikes.
And based on that, predicting peak-demand might be a bit easier, though 5-15 year sounds overly aggressive given the fact that much of the world is under developed.
But who knows... there could be a miraculous discover7 in alternative energy (or battery tech)
- kev009 10y agoI would speculate about it more in terms how under developed countries went straight to 3G/4G cellular, perhaps skipping earlier radio tech and maybe even some degree of wireline tech (this part is grossly oversimplified in journalism, but there is some validity to needing less lowband wireline infra). Maybe that second caveat delivers further insight, i.e. I would expect diesel to outlive gasoline by 20-40 years. Diesel is like a capacity 3.5" enterprise disk while flash underwent yield, density, and longevity development.