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And since this is not going to happen, and carbon sequestration takes more energy than we gain from the remaining oil, an articifial volcanic winter is probably

And since this is not going to happen, and carbon sequestration takes more energy than we gain from the remaining oil, an articifial volcanic winter is probably going to be the only way out. Main problem: Kiss complex oceanic life goodbye - 2C warming will already be enough to pretty much kill all the coral reefs. Getting a cooling effect but with a continuously increasing ocean acidity will be devastating.

zachrose 10y ago
Is there a chance that evolution will mitigate the rising temperatures and ocean acidity? Or are there perhaps levels those things that are fundamentally negative to life in general? Or is evolution too slow or too unpredictable to come out as a anything other than a net negative for humans?
- m_mueller 10y ago
  With very high certainty (with some slight chance that Earth becomes the next Venus and evolution here ends for good). Keep in mind though that a mass extinction is part of the process of accelerating evolution. You don't get a quick adaptation without a strong selection process. Edit: By 'slight chance' I mean very much near zero btw. However I'm skeptic enough of climate models to know that they aren't good enough to include all the domino effects we've never seen. The Permiam-Triassic boundary saw tremendous forest fires along with abrupt methane release, and that didn't include a species actively releasing enormous amounts of fossilised carbon. I'd imagine that if a few worst case scenarios came together - finding more fossil fuel sources, burning up all of it and causing unstoppable forest fires in all large remaining forests, it could happen. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130729-runaway-greenhouse-global-warming-venus-ocean-climate-science/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130729-runaw...
- Scarblac 10y ago
  It depends on whether there already exist creatures that can survive the rising temperatures and coming acidity _together with whatever they eat_.
- mikeash 10y ago
  Evolution will solve it eventually. The problem is the timescale. It's a common argument that climate change isn't a problem because the Earth has been even warmer in the past. That's true, but misses the point. The problem isn't merely that the climate is warming, but that it's warming extremely quickly. Nature adjusts, but nature takes a long time to do it. If the temperature goes up by 4°C in a century, that's far too fast. On the specific question of evolution, major changes happen on a timescale of thousands if not millions of years. For example, despite huge changes in our environment, humans today are basically the same as they were tens of thousands of years ago. Earth will probably return to something like an equilibrium, both in terms of climate and in terms of wildlife, in a million years or less. But that doesn't do us any good when the threat to our civilization, from climate change and ecosystem collapse, is in the next century or two.
thaumasiotes 10y ago
> Kiss complex oceanic life goodbye - 2C warming will already be enough to pretty much kill all the coral reefs. If only there were some process by which living populations could "adapt" to a changing environment. You couldn't get rid of complex oceanic life if you tried, no matter what you tried.
- m_mueller 10y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_ev... I know that I was vague with using the word 'complex', but 96% of all marine species, with only small, 'squishy' (low calcium carbonate content in bodies) species surviving, is enough for me. It's also interesting to look at what probably caused that particular, so far most devastating extinction event.
- woodandsteel 10y ago
  But you might get rid of all the species that human beings eat.
- _ph_ 10y ago
  If you talk in the time scales of millions of years, yes. Otherwise it is not true. Global warming has the potential to eradicate most marine life as we know it. And once it is gone, it is gone for all the time scales relevant for humanity. And we do not know how far the ecological impact would be. Just killing the coral reefs would be a tragedy, but if we are unlucky, this triggers enough eco systems to collapse that also our direct survival is endangered.
- simonh 10y ago
  1. Through over-fishing, exploitation and pollution the higher marine animal populations collapse. Coral reefs disappear. 2. After several generations nobody alive has ever seen a coral reef, a whale or dolphin. Most of the 'attractive' marine environments are heavily compromised so nobody is interested in preserving the marine environment anymore as it's mostly gone already. 3. Humans develop a global stable civilization. 4. After a million years or so the remaining marine habitats and life forms have heavily adapted to the new environment. Few to no higher animals remain that resemble their 'natural' forms. Humanity comes to regard these as vermine. Project the above over another couple of billions of years.
diafygi 10y ago
Nature will be fine, she's been through worse. It's humans who are in for a rough time. From some of the pentagon reports, it sounds like major wars over food and migration start breaking out at 2.5-3C, if not sooner. At 3-4C it's likely to no longer be confined to developing nations. http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/612710 http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/612710
- mcv 10y ago
  Both nature and humans will be in for a rough time, and both will survive, but not unscathed. Coral reefs and many other vulnerable ecosystems will get seriously damaged. Something will eventually take its place, but in the mean time, a lot of species will be going extinct. That may not be quite as pressing an issue for us as war and famine, but it's not the same thing as "fine".
- simonh 10y ago
  There are only really two scenarios in which nature will be fine. Humans wipe themselves out, or humans build a long term (billions of years) sustainable civilization that maintains extensive nature reserves well stocked with viable and sustainable populations of wildlife with no interruptions or reserve management screw ups for the rest of the life of the solar system.

zachrose 10y ago

Is there a chance that evolution will mitigate the rising temperatures and ocean acidity? Or are there perhaps levels those things that are fundamentally negative to life in general? Or is evolution too slow or too unpredictable to come out as a anything other than a net negative for humans?

m_mueller 10y ago
With very high certainty (with some slight chance that Earth becomes the next Venus and evolution here ends for good). Keep in mind though that a mass extinction is part of the process of accelerating evolution. You don't get a quick adaptation without a strong selection process. Edit: By 'slight chance' I mean very much near zero btw. However I'm skeptic enough of climate models to know that they aren't good enough to include all the domino effects we've never seen. The Permiam-Triassic boundary saw tremendous forest fires along with abrupt methane release, and that didn't include a species actively releasing enormous amounts of fossilised carbon. I'd imagine that if a few worst case scenarios came together - finding more fossil fuel sources, burning up all of it and causing unstoppable forest fires in all large remaining forests, it could happen. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130729-runaway-greenhouse-global-warming-venus-ocean-climate-science/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130729-runaw...
Scarblac 10y ago
It depends on whether there already exist creatures that can survive the rising temperatures and coming acidity _together with whatever they eat_.
mikeash 10y ago
Evolution will solve it eventually. The problem is the timescale. It's a common argument that climate change isn't a problem because the Earth has been even warmer in the past. That's true, but misses the point. The problem isn't merely that the climate is warming, but that it's warming extremely quickly. Nature adjusts, but nature takes a long time to do it. If the temperature goes up by 4°C in a century, that's far too fast. On the specific question of evolution, major changes happen on a timescale of thousands if not millions of years. For example, despite huge changes in our environment, humans today are basically the same as they were tens of thousands of years ago. Earth will probably return to something like an equilibrium, both in terms of climate and in terms of wildlife, in a million years or less. But that doesn't do us any good when the threat to our civilization, from climate change and ecosystem collapse, is in the next century or two.

thaumasiotes 10y ago

> Kiss complex oceanic life goodbye - 2C warming will already be enough to pretty much kill all the coral reefs. If only there were some process by which living populations could "adapt" to a changing environment. You couldn't get rid of complex oceanic life if you tried, no matter what you tried.

m_mueller 10y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_ev... I know that I was vague with using the word 'complex', but 96% of all marine species, with only small, 'squishy' (low calcium carbonate content in bodies) species surviving, is enough for me. It's also interesting to look at what probably caused that particular, so far most devastating extinction event.
woodandsteel 10y ago
But you might get rid of all the species that human beings eat.
_ph_ 10y ago
If you talk in the time scales of millions of years, yes. Otherwise it is not true. Global warming has the potential to eradicate most marine life as we know it. And once it is gone, it is gone for all the time scales relevant for humanity. And we do not know how far the ecological impact would be. Just killing the coral reefs would be a tragedy, but if we are unlucky, this triggers enough eco systems to collapse that also our direct survival is endangered.
simonh 10y ago
1. Through over-fishing, exploitation and pollution the higher marine animal populations collapse. Coral reefs disappear. 2. After several generations nobody alive has ever seen a coral reef, a whale or dolphin. Most of the 'attractive' marine environments are heavily compromised so nobody is interested in preserving the marine environment anymore as it's mostly gone already. 3. Humans develop a global stable civilization. 4. After a million years or so the remaining marine habitats and life forms have heavily adapted to the new environment. Few to no higher animals remain that resemble their 'natural' forms. Humanity comes to regard these as vermine. Project the above over another couple of billions of years.

diafygi 10y ago

Nature will be fine, she's been through worse. It's humans who are in for a rough time. From some of the pentagon reports, it sounds like major wars over food and migration start breaking out at 2.5-3C, if not sooner. At 3-4C it's likely to no longer be confined to developing nations. http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/612710 http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/612710

mcv 10y ago
Both nature and humans will be in for a rough time, and both will survive, but not unscathed. Coral reefs and many other vulnerable ecosystems will get seriously damaged. Something will eventually take its place, but in the mean time, a lot of species will be going extinct. That may not be quite as pressing an issue for us as war and famine, but it's not the same thing as "fine".
simonh 10y ago
There are only really two scenarios in which nature will be fine. Humans wipe themselves out, or humans build a long term (billions of years) sustainable civilization that maintains extensive nature reserves well stocked with viable and sustainable populations of wildlife with no interruptions or reserve management screw ups for the rest of the life of the solar system.