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I work in cleantech, and it always seems weird how much fatalism I see in the comments sections of climate change threads on HN. Why are we so hopeless? Don't b

by diafygi 10y ago

I work in cleantech, and it always seems weird how much fatalism I see in the comments sections of climate change threads on HN. Why are we so hopeless? Don't be! Be the entrepreneurs you say you are, because there's so much money to be made here! My favorite joke about climate change: "They say humans won't act until it's too late... Luckily, it's too late!" Here's my list of why we'll fix climate change: 1. Wall Street is now on our side. Clean energy technologies are now mature and cheaper without subsidy than fossil alternatives[1], so the clean energy sector is starting to be viewed by the financial sector more like construction rather than a tech R&D. 2. Insurance and Real Estate are now on our side. The effects of climate change are expected to have a $44 trillion economic downside[2], and that loss is starting to creep into the depreciation terms and insuring everything from crops to real estate. 3. Cleantech now has more jobs. Clean energy now employs more workers (including blue collar local workers) than the coal industry and the upstream oil industry[3]. Also, the advanced energy sector (cleantech + energy efficiency + smartgrid) is now at $1.4 trillion, which is bigger than many other industries like airlines and fashion, and will soon pass the entire media industry[4]. 4. Developing countries are now pivoting hard away from fossil fuels. China has pledged to peak emissions by 2030, but it may be as early as 2027[5]. Also, Africa is expected to leapfrog fossil-based generation and go straight to renewables (much like how skipped landlines and went straight to wireless)[6]. Given these allies, who do think is going to win in a policy fight? As powerful as Exxon and BP are, they don't hold a candle to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sacs, China, etc. So if you were wondering when the turning point for humanity to start taking action, now is that time. Rest assured, you won't have to do anything if you don't want. The people making the money will do it for you. It's really weird to see the HN community (and tech startups in general) totally not want in on any of that action. Now that the hardware tech is here, cleantech is now basically a scaling exercise, which means efficiency, which means software. There are literally trillions of dollars to be made in cleantech software, yet every time there's a post on climate change on HN it's all doom and gloom. Come on! We have to replace 87% of our global energy sources in less than 30 years[7]. That's faster growth than the Internet, and it's time for tech startups to cash in on it. [1]: https://www.lazard.com/media/2390/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-analysis-90.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/2390/lazards-levelized-cost-of-... [2]: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate-change-44-trillion-citi.html http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate... [3]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/clean-energy-jobs-surpass-oil-drilling-for-first-time-in-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/clean-ene... [4]: http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2016/03/advanced-energy-hits-record-revenue-nearly-1-4-trillion-2015/ http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2016/03/advanced-energy... [5]: https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-pledge-puts-china-on-course-to-peak-emissions-as-early-as-2027 https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-pledge-puts-china-on-cou... [6]: http://news.trust.org/item/20161018065317-ct50s http://news.trust.org/item/20161018065317-ct50s [7]: http://www.pvsolarreport.com/the-next-internet/ http://www.pvsolarreport.com/the-next-internet/

artifaxx 10y ago
Thanks for a practical counterbalance to the pointless snark here. Your comments about software improving efficiency reminded me of Google's datacenter optimizations. https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal/#measuring-efficiency https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal... Data driven improvement can make a big difference in many places.
bumblebeard 10y ago
I think people are hopeless because while we are starting to move in the right direction, it's probably too little and too late. Moderation of CO2 emissions might have been enough 20-30 years ago, but now we need immediate radical action to prevent extreme changes in the planet's climate and that's not happening. Regardless of how much money there is to be made in this market (and you're right, there's a lot), Earth is going to be a very different place to live in 50 years unless we rapidly make dramatic and fundamental changes to the way we produce and use energy.
- diafygi 10y ago
  You're right, Earth will be very different 50 years from now, but it's a matter of degrees (literally). Here's a good rule of thumb[1]: * Pull up 25% fossil assets - 2°C - Costly, but livable * Pull up 33% fossil assets - 3°C - 1 billion fewer people on the planet * Pull up 50% fossil assets - 4°C - 1 billion people on the planet * Pull up all fossil assets - 5°C - Mad Max So it's all a matter of how fast you can stop pulling fossil fuels out of the ground. Luckily, oil prices are getting cheaper which cuts out a large chunk of assets (tar sands, etc.), so we'll likely not hit 5°C. Hopeless ensures 4°C, profit motive makes 3°C possible, smart people working in the field makes 2°C possible. I'd humbly request that people reading this look into advanced energy software jobs when they plot their next career move. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble
  - maverick_iceman 10y ago
    That's a bit too specific prediction.

by diafygi 10y ago

artifaxx 10y ago

Thanks for a practical counterbalance to the pointless snark here. Your comments about software improving efficiency reminded me of Google's datacenter optimizations. https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal/#measuring-efficiency https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal... Data driven improvement can make a big difference in many places.

bumblebeard 10y ago

I think people are hopeless because while we are starting to move in the right direction, it's probably too little and too late. Moderation of CO2 emissions might have been enough 20-30 years ago, but now we need immediate radical action to prevent extreme changes in the planet's climate and that's not happening. Regardless of how much money there is to be made in this market (and you're right, there's a lot), Earth is going to be a very different place to live in 50 years unless we rapidly make dramatic and fundamental changes to the way we produce and use energy.

diafygi 10y ago
You're right, Earth will be very different 50 years from now, but it's a matter of degrees (literally). Here's a good rule of thumb[1]: * Pull up 25% fossil assets - 2°C - Costly, but livable * Pull up 33% fossil assets - 3°C - 1 billion fewer people on the planet * Pull up 50% fossil assets - 4°C - 1 billion people on the planet * Pull up all fossil assets - 5°C - Mad Max So it's all a matter of how fast you can stop pulling fossil fuels out of the ground. Luckily, oil prices are getting cheaper which cuts out a large chunk of assets (tar sands, etc.), so we'll likely not hit 5°C. Hopeless ensures 4°C, profit motive makes 3°C possible, smart people working in the field makes 2°C possible. I'd humbly request that people reading this look into advanced energy software jobs when they plot their next career move. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble
- maverick_iceman 10y ago
  That's a bit too specific prediction.