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The future is unwritten and predictions about it are consistently wrong. Making predictions can actually change the course of events.

• jfoster 10y ago
  I'm asking about the things that can be reasoned. For instance, something I realised a few months ago was that there is no good short term outcome from the US election. If Trump wins, there will be a bit of panic and I suspect markets will get hit. If Clinton wins, Trump will probably cause instability by starting lawsuits, claiming it was rigged, and stirring up his supporters; it could get very nasty. I accept that publicising a prediction could change the course of things. That's okay.
  • Mz 10y ago
    Fine, I will play.
  • inimino 10y ago
    That's not what I would call solid reasoning, just guessing at some possible outcomes. You could just as easily argue positive short term outcomes for either scenario.