3 ms·

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

by euyyn 10y ago

jhbadger 10y ago
Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.
- hga 10y ago
  Don't forget the drop in the number of younger men, the most likely to become criminals, as the Baby Boomers grew older. Not to mention a bunch of the incorrigibles getting locked up for long periods of time.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    The number of Millenials is about the same as the number of Boomers. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-... Note that the article talks about the number of living Boomers and Millenials surpassing them. I'm not making that point. The max number of Boomers was about 79 million. 75 million Millenials is quite comparable to that.
    - hga 10y ago
      We normally look at crimes by rates, X per 100,000, so the fact that the total population is quite a bit bigger between the two periods is significant. So is the fact that the item you're comparing today's still living, old Boomers to a by definition much younger Millennial population. There were once quite a few more Boombers, and circling back to my entire point, young Boomers of the criminal producing age.
      - maxerickson 10y ago
        No, I'm comparing the 75 million living Millenials to the 79 million peak population of the Boomers. But I repeat myself. I also disagree that a ~5% difference would be likely to drive significant differences in crime rates. Later: Yes, that Millenials are a smaller percentage of the population would complicate the comparison.
- oldmanjay 10y ago
  That US economic boom was followed pretty spectacularly by a bust caused mainly by the rampant speculation that fueled the boom being based largely on bullshit. You're clamoring for a soap bubble that didn't withstand a tiny pinprick.

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

by euyyn 10y ago

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.

hga 10y ago
Don't forget the drop in the number of younger men, the most likely to become criminals, as the Baby Boomers grew older. Not to mention a bunch of the incorrigibles getting locked up for long periods of time.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  The number of Millenials is about the same as the number of Boomers. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-... Note that the article talks about the number of living Boomers and Millenials surpassing them. I'm not making that point. The max number of Boomers was about 79 million. 75 million Millenials is quite comparable to that.
  - hga 10y ago
    We normally look at crimes by rates, X per 100,000, so the fact that the total population is quite a bit bigger between the two periods is significant. So is the fact that the item you're comparing today's still living, old Boomers to a by definition much younger Millennial population. There were once quite a few more Boombers, and circling back to my entire point, young Boomers of the criminal producing age.
    - maxerickson 10y ago
      No, I'm comparing the 75 million living Millenials to the 79 million peak population of the Boomers. But I repeat myself. I also disagree that a ~5% difference would be likely to drive significant differences in crime rates. Later: Yes, that Millenials are a smaller percentage of the population would complicate the comparison.
oldmanjay 10y ago
That US economic boom was followed pretty spectacularly by a bust caused mainly by the rampant speculation that fueled the boom being based largely on bullshit. You're clamoring for a soap bubble that didn't withstand a tiny pinprick.