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This is a pretty good article and worth a read for people who are not already informed. They were not completely correct. They seem to underestimate the stabil
by nickik 10y ago
This is a pretty good article and worth a read for people who are not already informed.
They were not completely correct. They seem to underestimate the stability and staying power of Jordan. Both US and Israel help to make sure that Jordan is protected. Stability of monarchies are typically underestimated.
Syria's government has not fallen, and Nusra (now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham) never managed to unify the rebel to any great extend and build a real powerful land and tax base. Thanks to Russia and Iran Syria is (very) slowly winning the fight against the rebels.
Looking from Saudi Arabia into Yemen we see as somewhat different picture now. Al Qaeda has a solid branch in Yemen but they have been very much infused into the culture and politics of the region. They lack real reach and hitting power for global jihad. They are to busy marrying tribal chiefs daughters and smuggling (mostly gas).
The real issue for the Saudis in Yemen is not Al-Qaeda (who are in the South) but rather the Hutti rebels that live right along the border to Saudi Arabia. These guys have been extremely successful and Saudi Arabia does not like it at all, they are spending Billions to fight them, much more then they spend to fight Al-Qaeda in Yemen.
They seem to view the Hutti mostly as a Iranian Proxy (maybe future proxy) even while the evidence for this is currently rather thin. The Hutti seem to want Iranian support but the Iranians seem to think that even without much direct support the Hutti are already doing a good job. Saudia Arabia is spending money like nobody buissness and the Iranians handle the same conflict with a tight budget.
Its the other way around in Iraq/Syria, there Iran is blowing the money and the Saudis can be rather conservative.
One interesting thing for everybody to know is also the strong decentralisation of Al-Quida, groups like ISIS and al-Sham (Nusra) do their own thing now. Al-Quida in Yemen is also not a very good branch of Al-Quida central.
- pjc50 10y agoIf I've got this right, in Syria, Iran is opposed to ISIS/Daesh and Saudis are funding them? While the Russians are supporting the status-quo Assad/Alawhite faction and the American backed "liberation" factions have mostly died out? (People seem to have stopped talking about AQ in the context of Syria?)
- sremani 10y agoThere are no "liberal" syrian rebels, the factions america along with Saudis are supporting are Sunni militias which are cousins if not brothers of AQ. You have divided interests of Kurds, Turks, Alawite regime + Russian, Sunni Militias + Saudi + USA, Iraqi Shia + Iran each having their varied interests. Assad wants ISIS to linger around since the focus would be on it rather than him, and he is focused on fighting the Sunni militias (freedom fighters according to US kind of like 80s afghanistan), Turks do not wants Kurds to be powerful and are interested in marginalizing them in Northern Syria. Kurds want to fight ISIS with help of US and score brownie points for Kurdistan. Sunni militias do not have much problem with ISIS want to fight the Alawite regime and make Syria Sunni Again ;). Iraqi Shia and Iran want to marginalize the Sunnis supporting ISIS. To say the least its a giant clusterfuck and US is willingly in bed with Al Qaeda ( wannabes like Al-Nusra front)
- nickik 10y agoThe Kurds are not unified, and the Turks don't universally oppose them. The Syrian Kurds do not want to create a independent Kurdistan, while the Iraqi Kurds (KGP) do, and they are on good terms with the Turks. The US support of different groups has been overplayed. The US efforts were rather small and "in bed with AQ" is just spouting new headlines. The US tired to build a fraction, but failed, they have largely abandoned the effort.
- jwtadvice 10y ago> The Syrian Kurds do not want to create a independent Kurdistan "Kojave" Or do you mean a greater Kurdish State?
- finid 10y agoThe US support of different groups has been overplayed. The US efforts were rather small and "in bed with AQ" is just spouting new headlines. The US tired to build a fraction, but failed, they have largely abandoned the effort. I hate when people write stuff like that! Thanks largely to Russian intervention, the US/Saudi/Qatar axis has, so far, failed to topple Assad. But no, they've not given up. Far from it. "Assad must go" is still official policy. Just remember that we have boots on the ground. Rebels (read: terrorists) are being pummeled in Aleppo, but we're still doing all we can to to support them. The real obstacle is Russian firepower. Without, it, Assad would have been history, and Syria in worse shape that it is right now.
- idlewords 10y agoThey're Houthi, not Hutti (for the benefit of anyone trying to Google). Iona Craig and Peter Salisbury are both excellent on the current, horrible proxy war in Yemen.
- nickik 10y agoYes, I'm sorry about that.
- pault 10y agoSlightly off topic: does anyone know of any forums/news aggregators of comparable quality to the HN community (e.g. generally well informed, polite, and strictly moderated/self-moderated) that focus on geopolitics?