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Every time someone succeeds, people call it out for good luck. In the case of Steve Jobs, that takes a lot of good luck. Good luck repeated reliably over the c
by tajen 10y ago
Every time someone succeeds, people call it out for good luck.
In the case of Steve Jobs, that takes a lot of good luck. Good luck repeated reliably over the course of his life.
It's funny how good luck falls more on people often who work hard...
- ihaveahadron 10y agoA lot probably was luck. But he seemed to have a winning formula on how to be in situations where he would get lucky.
- w1ntermute 10y agoI think the point is that even if you're 100x as "lucky" if you work hard, if x << 1, then it's also true that 100x << 1.
- taneq 10y agoBut that's exactly what survivor bias IS. Jobs took some very long shots, and hit the bullseye on each of them. (He also missed a couple cough NeXT cough.) How long would you say the odds of him making the right call all those times? A million to one? There were at least a million other people who started in about the same situation, and worked just as hard, and made similarly risky calls. They didn't get heads all the way, and now you're not reading their autobiography or talking about them on HN. Don't discard your priors.
- at-fates-hands 10y agoDo you think with the first time he pushed out of Apple (1985) and then his failures at NeXT, he found some kind of formula he employed to suddenly be able to hit the bulls eye more consistently? It would seem Apple had several low level failures (Lisa, iMac mouse, G4 cube), but his big bets (iTunes, iPad, iPhone) always seemed to pay off.
- Avshalom 10y agoOther than the iPhone none of that would look like a big bet if they had failed or not taken off.
- ryandrake 10y agoAttributing a causal relationship between hard work and success ignores the millions who work hard and are not successful.
- charlesdm 10y agoHard work in itself doesn't matter. You also have to work in a smart way. Most people work hard, but not smart.
- dvtv75 10y agoThe wealthy boss will always sell you on hard work being responsible for being where he is today. But who gains most from a hard working employee - the employee or the boss?
- charlesdm 10y agoThe boss, obviously. Most wealthy people I know with net worths over $100m (maybe some tech founders excluding) aren't really hard working.. they're strategic thinkers and deal makers, and they know how to get stuff done, but I would not consider them hard working. They tend to live relatively relaxed lifestyles but are smart about how to achieve results when required. And when required, that might mean once a year.
- 77pt77 10y agoIf hard work was all it took donkeys would be very successful.
- code777777 10y agoAgreed. Reminds me of my favorite quote. "Chance favors only the prepared mind." Louis Pasteur
- taneq 10y ago"Never forget to put out your nets!" - Clonio, Prydain.