4 ms·

This was frankly unexpected. I wonder what P(supreme=no|high=yes) ? If anyone knows please say. Will the gov bother appealing? The ruling makes available a sab

by usgroup 10y ago

This was frankly unexpected. I wonder what P(supreme=no|high=yes) ? If anyone knows please say. Will the gov bother appealing? The ruling makes available a sabateurs toolbox and could potentially delay Brexit for some time. My bet is that the government don't appeal and then go onto put serious media pressure on parliament to pull the trigger quickly. Having said that I was definitely betting that the high court would pass this ...

agd 10y ago
If you've been following the case, this was not unexpected. Also the government have already confirmed they will appeal.
- usgroup 10y ago
  Yes, 2 minutes ago on the BBC :) I had not seen it. What do you think will happen at Supreme Court? Same again?
  - walshemj 10y ago
    so? Parliament is sovereign here the UK supreme court is nothing like the US one
    - pmyteh 10y ago
      Judgments of the UK Supreme Court do bind the executive, though - so if they uphold the High Court judgment then the government needs to go to Parliament. In the event that they overturn the High Court judgment, you're right that Parliament could in principle pass an Act reserving to itself the right to activate Article 50. In practice, though, the government would use its majority in the Commons to stop that happening. Or alternatively send in the Article 50 notification while Parliament is debating the bill. In either case, the Supreme Court's judgment would be effectively final.
ranko 10y ago
Leaving the EU necessarily entails amending or (more likely) repealing the European Communities Act 1972. It's pretty fundamental to the UK constitution that this can only be done by parliament, which makes the judgment entirely expected in legal terms.
- usgroup 10y ago
  What do you think will happen RE Supreme Court? I'd infer same again from your comment?
pmyteh 10y ago
Not sure about P(supreme=no|high=yes). I've read the judgment in some depth; although I'm not a lawyer I am a political scientist with a strong interest in constitutional law. The principle that rights established by Parliament cannot be abrogated by the executive in exercise of prerogative powers is a really strong one in English common law and the judgment seems very strong there. The technical question about whether the European Communities Act enshrined a particular set of rights as guaranteed in the treaties, or enshrined whatever rights happened to be a consequence of those treaties from time-to-time seems a much closer question in my view. I think the judgment is convincing on the point, but it wouldn't surprise me if another bench took a different view. In fact, the High Court in Northern Ireland did, when they recently ruled (though the present judgment does address and explain the differences). I think the other thing worth mentioning is that this was a very high powered High Court panel - it featured both the Lord Chief Justice and the Master of the Rolls - so it's not exactly akin to a handful of random junior judges giving an opinion in expectation of being overturned. The Supreme Court may take a different view of the merits, of course.
- usgroup 10y ago
  Very grateful for the depth of your answer, thank you ...

by usgroup 10y ago

agd 10y ago

If you've been following the case, this was not unexpected. Also the government have already confirmed they will appeal.

usgroup 10y ago
Yes, 2 minutes ago on the BBC :) I had not seen it. What do you think will happen at Supreme Court? Same again?
- walshemj 10y ago
  so? Parliament is sovereign here the UK supreme court is nothing like the US one
  - pmyteh 10y ago
    Judgments of the UK Supreme Court do bind the executive, though - so if they uphold the High Court judgment then the government needs to go to Parliament. In the event that they overturn the High Court judgment, you're right that Parliament could in principle pass an Act reserving to itself the right to activate Article 50. In practice, though, the government would use its majority in the Commons to stop that happening. Or alternatively send in the Article 50 notification while Parliament is debating the bill. In either case, the Supreme Court's judgment would be effectively final.

ranko 10y ago

Leaving the EU necessarily entails amending or (more likely) repealing the European Communities Act 1972. It's pretty fundamental to the UK constitution that this can only be done by parliament, which makes the judgment entirely expected in legal terms.

usgroup 10y ago
What do you think will happen RE Supreme Court? I'd infer same again from your comment?

pmyteh 10y ago

Not sure about P(supreme=no|high=yes). I've read the judgment in some depth; although I'm not a lawyer I am a political scientist with a strong interest in constitutional law. The principle that rights established by Parliament cannot be abrogated by the executive in exercise of prerogative powers is a really strong one in English common law and the judgment seems very strong there. The technical question about whether the European Communities Act enshrined a particular set of rights as guaranteed in the treaties, or enshrined whatever rights happened to be a consequence of those treaties from time-to-time seems a much closer question in my view. I think the judgment is convincing on the point, but it wouldn't surprise me if another bench took a different view. In fact, the High Court in Northern Ireland did, when they recently ruled (though the present judgment does address and explain the differences). I think the other thing worth mentioning is that this was a very high powered High Court panel - it featured both the Lord Chief Justice and the Master of the Rolls - so it's not exactly akin to a handful of random junior judges giving an opinion in expectation of being overturned. The Supreme Court may take a different view of the merits, of course.

usgroup 10y ago
Very grateful for the depth of your answer, thank you ...