6 ms·

I feel like we will only see more of this all over the world. As production, warehousing and distribution become increasingly automated a significant portion of

I feel like we will only see more of this all over the world. As production, warehousing and distribution become increasingly automated a significant portion of human population will not be able to find work. To solve this, we will need to rethink compensation and the idea of working for a living.

bruxis 10y ago
I agree. It's interesting to see some countries start experimenting with a base income for all residents, though I think if this becomes widespread we'll simply see the base cost of living increase to that number. I hope we can put more energy into coming up with a valid long-term solution.
- Asooka 10y ago
  I think UBI is supposed to track base cost of living, i.e. it shouldn't cause an increase on that. Even if it has a bit of surplus, market economics should guarantee the existence of cheap options, unless cartels form. Which is a problem we should be solving regardless.
- digi_owl 10y ago
  I guess it will depend. Unless you are stuck in a "latte" habit, a basic income, at least if it is paid out of national coffers rather than local ones, will enable you to up and move where living is cheaper. That is perhaps the hardest part of current day public support structures, that they lock you into staying put.
  - Annatar 10y ago
    If enough people move to where it's cheaper, it causes a housing shortage, and then the price of housing rises, following increased demand. There are finite number of places where housing is cheaper. At the same time, we multiply and multiply.
  - mjevans 10y ago
    The environmental impact and loss of network effect efficiency (for society) would be dramatic. This is why I believe that we need to find the political will to make the cities more affordable (and also nicer) to live in than the outlying areas.
nickff 10y ago
We have had similar dislocations in the past; while they were painful transitions, people took on different jobs. Up until the late 1800s, the vast majority of Americans were farmers, who were dislocated as farm productivity rose; some of them suffered, but almost all of their children found new and more prosperous careers. There is no reason to believe this time is different.
- eropple 10y ago
  There most certainly is reason to believe that this time is different: because automation is owned capital that replaces labor entirely and modern automation is able to scale in ways that industrialization could never dream of. This doesn't create new jobs at scale--only so many people can be robot repairpeople. It's not "new job" territory. It's "no job" territory. And it's the recipe for a permanent underclass unless we actually use our heads for more than hat racks and re-think how a modern economy is supposed to work.
  - nickff 10y ago
    I could make the same argument about farm equipment eliminating farmers' jobs, and not leaving as many jobs for farm equipment repair. The problem is that we cannot imagine what ideas for productive work others might come up with in the future.
    - lgieron 10y ago
      > I could make the same argument about farm equipment eliminating farmers' jobs, and not leaving as many jobs for farm equipment repair. This. 300 years ago, 90+% of population was working in agriculture - now it's around 2% in developed countries. And yet, there was no armageddon - we managed to develop all these new needs that keep people employed. People saying that "this time it will be different" ignore the almost unlimited growth potential of some industries, such as for example teaching (we could go back to the standard of one teacher per one pupil that rich people had back in the day), psychological counsel (potentially everybody could benefit from a shrink/coach), or human-based health care (more nurses -> better standard of care).
tn13 10y ago
Luddite! I think widespread automation will dramatically increase human productivity and lower prices and bring amazing new products that will help all of live a better life including for those poor people. Without the level of automation we have today do you think poor people could afford television or car or even a can of soda? Think of many more amazing things that would be easily accessible for poor people across the world because the new wave of automation. Human beings pushed out from less productive works is a good thing for humanity in general. If some kid today grows up think she would do a job of a factory shop worker I think it is a bit waste of human talent. She can be lot more. Getting rid of minimum wage laws might be the best way to help those who are being pushed out of the employment due to automation.

bruxis 10y ago

I agree. It's interesting to see some countries start experimenting with a base income for all residents, though I think if this becomes widespread we'll simply see the base cost of living increase to that number. I hope we can put more energy into coming up with a valid long-term solution.

Asooka 10y ago
I think UBI is supposed to track base cost of living, i.e. it shouldn't cause an increase on that. Even if it has a bit of surplus, market economics should guarantee the existence of cheap options, unless cartels form. Which is a problem we should be solving regardless.
digi_owl 10y ago
I guess it will depend. Unless you are stuck in a "latte" habit, a basic income, at least if it is paid out of national coffers rather than local ones, will enable you to up and move where living is cheaper. That is perhaps the hardest part of current day public support structures, that they lock you into staying put.
- Annatar 10y ago
  If enough people move to where it's cheaper, it causes a housing shortage, and then the price of housing rises, following increased demand. There are finite number of places where housing is cheaper. At the same time, we multiply and multiply.
- mjevans 10y ago
  The environmental impact and loss of network effect efficiency (for society) would be dramatic. This is why I believe that we need to find the political will to make the cities more affordable (and also nicer) to live in than the outlying areas.

nickff 10y ago

We have had similar dislocations in the past; while they were painful transitions, people took on different jobs. Up until the late 1800s, the vast majority of Americans were farmers, who were dislocated as farm productivity rose; some of them suffered, but almost all of their children found new and more prosperous careers. There is no reason to believe this time is different.

eropple 10y ago
There most certainly is reason to believe that this time is different: because automation is owned capital that replaces labor entirely and modern automation is able to scale in ways that industrialization could never dream of. This doesn't create new jobs at scale--only so many people can be robot repairpeople. It's not "new job" territory. It's "no job" territory. And it's the recipe for a permanent underclass unless we actually use our heads for more than hat racks and re-think how a modern economy is supposed to work.
- nickff 10y ago
  I could make the same argument about farm equipment eliminating farmers' jobs, and not leaving as many jobs for farm equipment repair. The problem is that we cannot imagine what ideas for productive work others might come up with in the future.
  - lgieron 10y ago
    > I could make the same argument about farm equipment eliminating farmers' jobs, and not leaving as many jobs for farm equipment repair. This. 300 years ago, 90+% of population was working in agriculture - now it's around 2% in developed countries. And yet, there was no armageddon - we managed to develop all these new needs that keep people employed. People saying that "this time it will be different" ignore the almost unlimited growth potential of some industries, such as for example teaching (we could go back to the standard of one teacher per one pupil that rich people had back in the day), psychological counsel (potentially everybody could benefit from a shrink/coach), or human-based health care (more nurses -> better standard of care).

tn13 10y ago

Luddite! I think widespread automation will dramatically increase human productivity and lower prices and bring amazing new products that will help all of live a better life including for those poor people. Without the level of automation we have today do you think poor people could afford television or car or even a can of soda? Think of many more amazing things that would be easily accessible for poor people across the world because the new wave of automation. Human beings pushed out from less productive works is a good thing for humanity in general. If some kid today grows up think she would do a job of a factory shop worker I think it is a bit waste of human talent. She can be lot more. Getting rid of minimum wage laws might be the best way to help those who are being pushed out of the employment due to automation.