3 ms·
I'm not sure what the Bayesian fallacy is (I find several papers with the term in the title, but couldn't find a definition) but it seems like this could be the
by taejo 10y ago
I'm not sure what the Bayesian fallacy is (I find several papers with the term in the title, but couldn't find a definition) but it seems like this could be the base-rate fallacy (most goals come after short sequences of possession, neglecting the base rate: most sequences of possession are short).
- benchaney 10y agoP(A|B) does not equal P(B|A). The Bayesian fallacy is inappropriately conflating the two. In this case, The commentator confused P(scoring | long possession) and P(long possession | scoring). It is very similar to the base rate fallacy to the extent that if someone commits the Bayesian fallacy they almost always also commit the base rate fallacy.