4 ms·
Soft of, but it was more precisely the Bayesian fallacy.
by benchaney 10y ago
Soft of, but it was more precisely the Bayesian fallacy.
- taejo 10y agoI'm not sure what the Bayesian fallacy is (I find several papers with the term in the title, but couldn't find a definition) but it seems like this could be the base-rate fallacy (most goals come after short sequences of possession, neglecting the base rate: most sequences of possession are short).
- benchaney 10y agoP(A|B) does not equal P(B|A). The Bayesian fallacy is inappropriately conflating the two. In this case, The commentator confused P(scoring | long possession) and P(long possession | scoring). It is very similar to the base rate fallacy to the extent that if someone commits the Bayesian fallacy they almost always also commit the base rate fallacy.